1. PREVIEW in some words (PREVention, Information and Early Warning)
A project funded by the European Commission
23 millions € of eligible costs, 14 millions € granted
New information services to help risk management
Gathering users needs
Using the most advanced research and technology
Validation on operational platforms
58 partners from 15 nations
Scientists
Operators
Industrial companies
End Users
45 months performance schedule (start on 1 April 2005) and yearly budget reviews
COSMO partners involved: DWD, ARPA-SIM, ARPA Piedmont, Meteoswiss
A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview
COSMO meeting, Zurich, September 2005

2. Windstorms Workpackage (ARPA-SIM activity)
Provision of probabilistic forecasts and warnings of strong wind events at all time ranges up to 10 days ahead.
Ensemble Forecast inputs:
Medium-Range (3-10 days)
ECMWF
ARPA-SIM (COSMO-LEPS) (Days 3-5)
Short-Range (1-2 days) – multi-model ensemble consisting of contributions from:
Meteo-France - PEACE
DWD - SRNWP-PEPS
Met.no - TEPS/LAM EPS
Met Office - LAMEPS/EPS
Post-processing…
A.Montani; Eurorisk-Preview
COSMO meeting, Zurich, September 2005

3. Clone of COSMO-LEPS suite over NW Europe
Generation of a new limited-area ensemble forecast system for the prediction of wind and wind gusts over North-Western Europe.
Aim: provision of site-specific wind forecasts (wind speed, wind direction + other variables to diagnose wind gust) to be post-processed and combined with other products by UK Met. Office.
Point forecasts are calculated over 197 stations.
Similar configuration as the operational COSMO-LEPS (red), but both clustering and integration domain are shifted northwards (blue).
Experimental suite started on September 2006.
Computer time provided by an ECMWF special project between ARPA-SIM and UK Met Office.
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans
2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005

4. Medium-range plain flood Workpackage (ARPA-SIM activity)
Provision of probabilistic forecasts so as to generate ensemble flood forecasts to be compared with the deterministic approach for ranges between 3 and 10 days.
The upper-Danube river basin has been selected as pilot river basin and the test period will include the large floods of August 2002.
EPS + COSMO-LEPS (10 members) reruns performed for the period 20 July – 31 August 2002.
A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system: recent developments and plans
2nd Workshop on Short-Range EPS, Bologna, 7-8 April 2005