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Interest Rate Parity
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Recall Covered Interest Arbitrage Example 1
Foreign Currency = French Francs Investable Amount = $ 1,000,000 Sj : Spot rate = $ 0.10 = ff 1 Fj : Forward rate = $ 0.10 = ff 1 In interest = 5% In interest = 6%
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If you Deposited in France CALCULATION
Step 1 : Convert $ into spot rate of $ 0.10 $ 1,000,000 / 0.10 = ff 10,000,000 Step 2 : Deposit on interest of 6% in France ff 10,000,000 * 6 % = ff 600,000 Total = ff 10,600,000 Step 3 : Convert ff into forward rate 0.10 ff 10,600,000 * 0.10 = $ 1,060,000
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IF YOU DEPOSITED IN US CALCULATION : Investment: $ 1,000,000 * 5 %
US = 5 % CALCULATION : Investment: $ 1,000,000 * 5 % Profit = $ Total = $ 1,050,000
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RESULT : Profit from France is more than US
From US $ 1,050,000 From France $ 1,060,000 So invest in France
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Interest Rate Parity (IRP) Definition
“If there is a difference in the interest rate of the two countries, The forward rate will have a premium / discount equal to the interest rate differential , Then there will be no difference in profit to invest in home or foreign country”
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Calculating Premium/Discount Formula:
P = (1+ih) / (1+if) – 1 Where P = Forward Premium ih = Home Interest Rate if = Foreign Interest Rate
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Calculation Interest rate in US = ih = 5% It shows forward discount
DATA interest rate in France = if = 6% Interest rate in US = ih = 5% P / D = (1+5%)/(1+6%) – 1 * 100 D = approx % It shows forward discount It means US investors will receive 0.94% Less when they will convert the currency on forward Rate
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FORWARD RATE CALCULATION
FORMULA Fj = Sj ( 1 + p) Where Fj = Forward rate Sj = Spot rate P = Premium or Discount
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DATA Fj : Forward rate = ? Sj : Spot rate = $ 0.10 = ff 1
D : Discount = %
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CALCULATION Fj = 0.10 ( 1 + (- 0.94 %) ) Fj = $ 0.09906 Formula
Fj = Sj ( 1 + D) Fj = 0.10 ( 1 + ( %) ) Fj = $
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Example 2 You have two options for investment 1. In US @ interest = 5%
2. In interest = 6%
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DATA Foreign Currency = French Francs Investable Amount = $ 1,000,000
Sj : Spot rate = $ = ff 1 Fj : Forward rate = $ = ff 1 In interest = 5% In interest = 6%
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IF YOU DEPOSITED IN FRANCE
Calculation Step 1 : Convert $ into Spot of $ 0.10 $ 1,000,000 / 0.10 = ff 10,000,000 Step 2 : Deposit on interest of 6% in France. ff 10,000,000 * 6 % = ff 600,000 Total = ff 10,600,000 Step 3 : Convert ff into forward $ ff 10,600,000 * = $ 1,050,036
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IF YOU DEPOSITED IN US CALCULATION : Investment: $ 1,000,000 * 5 %
US = 5 % CALCULATION : Investment: $ 1,000,000 * 5 % Profit = $ Total = $ 1,050,000
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RESULT : It is approx equal profit From US & France
$ 1,050,000 From France $ 1,050,036
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CONCLUSION Therefore we can say that IRP exists because
Investing in home country or foreign country provides the same profit Even there was a difference in the interest rate
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