1. Statistical Analysis of Power System Faults
May 99-15
April 30, 1999
Corey Proctor EE
Alvina Hendradi EE
Chris Dennison EE
Greg Bahl EE
Advisor/client
Dr. James D. McCalley

2. Agenda Problem Statement Design Objectives End Product Description
Assumptions and Limitations
Technical Approach
Evaluation of Project Success
Future Work
Lesson Learned
Conclusions
Questions

3. Problem Statement
How do you balance the RISK with the BENEFIT for loading a conductor in a real power system using real statistical data?

4. Problem Statement: Background Power Line Heating

5. Problem Statement: Background Impacts of Thermal Loading
Loss of strength due to annealing.
Loss of ground clearance due to sagging.

6. Design Objectives
Develop a report that will outline the following items
Overview of the research including
Description of the data
Description of the statistical method
Description of the transmission line
Description of the process used to determine the associated risk
Determine a recommendation for the transmission line
Identify areas of further study

7. End Product Description
Risk assessment of a transmission line.
Real data
Produces a method and a recommendation for a transmission line
Analysis of weather
Load growth
Cost for reinforcement
Client takes full ownership of project results

8. Assumptions and Limitations
Statistics
Wind and temperature are statistically independent
Assumed load duration curve
Assumed probability of outages per year
Transmission lines
3.5% load growth per year
20 MW used for generation
15% interest rate for capital recovery
Limitations
Modeled only one load
N-1 outage conditions
System reduction
Limited number of weather sites
Risk assessment only for summer all other times risk = 0!

9. Technical Approach Developed Design Flow Chart Researched
Studied Alternatives
Compared Solutions
Made a Decision

11. Technical Approach: Research
Line Data
Location
Conductor
Load Characteristics
Cost of Transmission

12. Technical Approach: Research
Weather
Dates needed
Cost of data (Benefit analysis)
High Plains Climate Center
Processing
Implementation

13. Weather Data Collector

14. Technical Approach: Research Tools Used
EPRI Ipflow
Research grade software (ISU)

15. Technical Approach: Study Alternatives
Leave power line as is.
Restrict future plant load.
and/or take the risk.
Re-build
Add new power line
Add onsite generation

16. Technical Approach: Compare Solutions
Cost of Reinforcement
Risk
Feasibility

17. Technical Approach: Make a Decision
Benefits
Ease of implementation

18. Evaluation of Progress Success
Success!: Delivered all objectives
Description of:
Data
Statistical Method
Transmission Line
Process used to determine the associated risk
Determined a recommendation for transmission line
Identified further areas of study

19. Recommendations for Additional Work
Promote as a risk tool
Use a larger sampling of weather data
Study:
Conductor characteristics
Statistical dependence of wind and temperature
Economic value added instead of minimization of cost

20. Financial and Human Budgets

21. Lessons Learned Efficient time management
Increased understanding of statistical data manipulation.
Increased understanding of real-world costs.
Evaluating individual strengths and assigning work appropriately.

22. Conclusion
This assessment will provide planners and system operators a better understanding of system loading and financial costs associated with the risk of their actions.

23. Questions ?