1. LTER looking backwards and forwards
(big issues facing LTER; big ideas for the future)
Emily Stanley
University of Wisconsin- North Temperate Lakes

2. Disclaimer ICU, not IM Standing/leaning on the shoulders of giants
Culture and tradition of NTL set by John Magnuson, Steve Carpenter
Site and network IM excellence of Barbara Benson and Corinna Gries
Great LTER colleagues

3. The future is hard to predict…
Learn from the past
Identifying big issues as a critical first step
Use scenarios to think about possible futures

4. Magnuson, Kratz, Benson (2006): 4 conflicts (challenges) of LT research
Maintain the old while embracing the new
Analyses/methods/technologies; processes; scientists/ideas
Project manageability vs. project growth
Same for data
Retaining continuity, integrity of LT research
Practical and intellectual challenge
Site-specific research vs. need to synthesize

5. 2 more challenges Steve Carpenter:
Paul Hanson:
Network information systems must service the science, education, and outreach goals of the network.
Bob Kates: Disciplines disappear and universities will organize around questions vs. LTER
Transition may be turbulent…
“IM is the easy part. Intellectual leadership is the hard part”

6. Maintaining intellectual investment by top scientists: The Big Tent
No single intellectual viewpoint; a ‘flat table’
Core data and understanding as a critical attractant
The framework that holds up the building
Modest resources
Low cost/higher benefits (collaborations, leveraging)
Those involved want to be involved
Bottom up organization  robust to vagaries of individuals

7. The Big Tent for the LTER network
ASM as proof
But…
Sustaining, enhancing network-scale science?
Are LTER working groups as successful as NCEAS working groups?

8. The Big Tent for the LTER network
Invest more in LNO to contribute to intellectual leadership?
We’ve asked LNO to play more of a functionary, management role…

9. The Big Tent for the LTER network
No single intellectual viewpoint; a ‘flat table’
Disciplines disappear and universities will organize around questions vs. LTER
Jim Collins “The Future Ecologist”

10. The Big Tent for the LTER network
No single intellectual viewpoint; a ‘flat table’
Disciplines disappear and universities will organize around questions vs. LTER
Fred Swanson: ‘LTER as an interdisciplinary ship of exploration journeying through time’
Be a leader in this turbulent transition?
By doing the good science, but perhaps we also need to think about pushing other institutions?

11. Looking backwards to bring challenges into focus
Looking forward to be ready to handle them– scenarios for the future?
ASM 2006: The next 25 years Plenary
ASM 2012: LTER 2100 Workshop
Again; more in depth? Follow-up?

12. Scenarios for the future
The future now: making room to ask more100-year questions

13. END

14. Rationale for LTER program
Need to investigate ecological phenomena at scales of decades to centuries
Eco experiments conducted with little recognition of high inter-annual variability
LT trends not being monitored- can’t distinguish trends from cycles
Absence of a coordinated network of ecological research sites inhibits comparative research and its benefits
Natural ecosystems where research is done are being lost to other uses
Multi-level, integrated data were not available at intensive research sites

15. To be sustainable Long-term Research requires
Magnuson-
To be sustainable, Long-term Research requires:
To be sustainable Long-term Research requires
Funding and funding opportunities increased over time
High productivity of important scientific contributions
Key players and leaders attracted from successive generations of scientists
Breadth of the subject areas and measurements maintained
Personalities appropriate for management of interdisciplinary scientists

16. J. Collins ASM 2006 The ecologist of the future Sevilleta LTER
Increase CI capacity for data acquisition, management, and curation
Sevilleta LTER
The ecologist of the future

17. The ecologist of the future
Increase CI capacity for data acquisition, management, and curation
Sevilleta LTER