1. Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Soybean Outlook
Aug. 16, 2016
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.2
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
Yield
(bu./acre)
40.0
44.0
47.5
48.0
48.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,042
3,358
3,927
3,929
4,060
Beg. Stocks
169
141 92
191
255
Imports 41 72 33 25 30
Total Supply
3,252
3,570
4,052
4,145
4,346
Crush
1,689
1,734
1,873
1,900
1,940
Seed & Residual
105
107
146
109
126
Exports
1,317
1,638
1,842
1,880
1,950
Total Use
3,111
3,478
3,862
3,889
4,016
Ending Stocks
330
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
14.40
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.10
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. Early Soybean Yield Estimate

4. Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

7. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. Advance Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

10. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

11. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

12. Current Soybean Futures
9.32
8.85
Source: CME Group, 8/12/2016

13. 2015/16 Crop Margins

14. 2016/17 Crop Margins

15. 2017/18 Crop Margins

16. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

17. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: