1. Their mutual relationship and what we can expect in the years to come
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
Health and Wealth –
Their mutual relationship and what we can expect in the years to come
Björn Ekman, PhD
Researcher, Health Economics
Lund University, Sweden
Stockholm, November 8, 2016

2. Where are we and how did we get here…?
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
Where are we and how did we get here…?
BSR – Significant gains in human welfare over past half-decade:
Sustained economic growth
Improvements in population health
Stronger wellfare systems
However …!
Economic growth as GDP and broader measures of welfare.
LEB, mortality rates, infectious diseases are up/down.
Institutionalized social protection.

3. …old challenges remain and new ones are forming…
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
…old challenges remain and new ones are forming…
An unfinished agenda
Significant differences across and within countries
Sustainability of progress not assured
Suggesting …
Emerging challenges and threats
Demographic transition
Epidemiological changes
Climate change
Cancer health care costs e1,5b/yr in Norway; total costs e10b?

4. A three-pronged approach: Safe-guard achievements
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
The Solutions
A three-pronged approach:
Safe-guard achievements
Address remaining and emerging challenges
Think and act across sectors and in new ways
For example …
Alcohol causes seven types of cancers (Connor, 2016, Addiction)
Multi/Co-morbidity: vast majority of 80+ have multiple diagnoses.
Financial returns on investments are large: E.g. RoI: 300%+ on worksite efforts to improve physical activity.
Excise tax on harmful products and substances highly cost-effective and cost-beneficial, due to large health effects, small relative costs, and large absolute impacts.

5. Significant returns to investments across most health domains…
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
Significant returns to investments across most health domains…
Workplace programs to increase physical activity: RoI 300%
Community-based programs to promote mental health among children: 9:1 economic return
10% increase in tobacco tax increases probability of smoking cessation by 2% in Poland and Russia
Scaling up CE investments to promote road-traffic safety would reduce fatalities by 60% in Sweden and Norway
If…only if…

6. Looking forward… Challenges Opportunities So, … Economic resources
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
Looking forward…
Challenges
Economic resources
Demand for new medical advances and treatments
Opportunities
Strong institutions
New technologies and models for service delivery
So, …

7. So, health and social well-being in the BSR in 2030 will be either…
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
So, health and social well-being in the BSR in 2030 will be either…

8. …By 2030… NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
Most of these cases will happen outside of the BSR; some will happen in BSR.
Could have pointed at almost any other risk-factor, disease, or condition: people with high-blood pressure has doubled in Sweden over past decade and will continue to increase.

9. Health and Wealth…and everything in between…
NDPHS Seminar – 7th Annual EUSBSR Forum
Health and Wealth…and everything in between…
Photo: Shutterstock.
NDPHS Report on Economic aspects of health and social well-being: