1. Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts
Item Issues note
Martin Eiglsperger Luxembourg, 15 February 2007

2. 2
Review
First Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment of Quarterly National Accounts in 2000 – 2002:
Final report in January 2002: Recommendations + timetable for their implementation
Progress reports to the CMFB in 2003, 2004 and 2006
→ Agenda item 3
Mandate of the reconvened Task Force:
Further specification of recommendations
Investigation of the impact of working-day adjustment

3. Impact of chain-linking3
Impact of chain-linking
Features of chain-linked raw data:
Temporal additivity only for annual overlap
Chain-linked components do not add up to the respective aggregate
Additive data in previous year’s prices at an intermediate step of the chain-linking procedure
→ Impact on seasonally adjusted data and, in particular, on benchmarking s.a. results

4. Action points to the Task Force4
Action points to the Task Force
For discussion:
Additivity in previous year’s prices format or chain-linked format?
Choice of recent reference years in order to limit non-additivity?
Treatment of discrepancies or residual series
Relationship of adjustment of volume and current prices series
Time (in-)consistency of quarterly data: Implications?

5. Working-day adjusted series5
Working-day adjusted series
Significant working-day effects in recent years on GDP due to Christmas falling on a weekend and Easter in Q1
Working-day adjustment criticised for “distorting” the underlying development of GDP volume growth
 Explaining the concept of working-day adjustment (→ metadata) and providing quantitative information

6. Action points to the Task Force6
Action points to the Task Force
For discussion:
Dissemination of adjusted data under the new Transmission Program
Calculation and dissemination of purely working-day adjusted data
Implementation plan
Treatment of irregular effects

7. Causes for differences7
Causes for differences
ECB note on seasonal and working-day effects on GDP and expenditure components in six euro area countries
In some cases: seasonal and/or working-day profile differ markedly
→ Small-scale fact-finding for the reasons of the differences

8. Action points to the Task Force8
Action points to the Task Force
Collection of information about driving factors for a small number of QNA series
Implications of different profiles in the context of indirect vs. direct adjustment
If conceptual differences are considered relevant, propose further harmonisation

9. Metadata Reconvened Task Force: Steering Group (SG):9
Metadata
Reconvened Task Force:
Review the template created by the TF in 2002
Present the new template at the WG meeting
Collect and maintain information
Steering Group (SG):
More general approach on providing metadata
Develop strategy for providing and presenting metadata
→ Liaise with SG for co-ordination and co-operation