1. How To Save Big Bucks with Modeling and Simulation
L. Waganer
14-15 June 2007
ARIES Project Meeting at GA

2. Likely Fusion Development ScenarioMy
Guesses
Physics Test Reactor, ITER, $6B
Fusion Materials Test Facility, IFMIF, $1B
Component Test Facility, CTF, $2B
Integrated Test Facility, ITF or TNS, $3B
Demo, $3B (1/2 Utility?)
Prototype Reactor, $4B (1/2 Utility?)
First Commercial, ARIES-AT, ($5B, Utility)
Total Cost to US = Big Bucks !

3. Lower Cost Approach Physics Test Reactor, ITER, $6B
Fusion Materials Test Facility, IFMIF, $1B
Needed
Component Test Facility, CTF, $0B
Needed
Combine
Integrated Test Facility, ITF or TNS, $3B
Needed
Demo, $0B ?
Combine,
But Higher
Risk
Prototype Reactor, $0B ?
First Commercial, ARIES-AT, ($5B, Utility)
Savings to US = Big Bucks !

4. Modeling and Simulation Have Made Significant Advances
A Few Examples
Weather Forecasting
Computational Fluid Dynamics, CFD
Electronic Warfare
Large Scale Integration
Earthquake Effects
Saleable Test Aircraft
Large Skyscrapers, Bridges, Dams
Ground-Based Missile Defense
Enablers
More powerful and faster computers
Large scale parallel processing
Fuzzy Logic
Agent-Based and Reactive-Agent Frameworks
Efficient Data Reduction

5. Simulation Approach Physics Test Reactor, ITER, $6B
Fusion Materials Test Facility, IFMIF, $1 B
Needed
Component Test Facility, CTF, $0 B
Needed
Combine
Integrated Test Facility, ITF or TNS, $3 B
Needed
Simulated Demo, $0.3 B
Simulate based on prior results and analysis
Simulated Prototype Reactor, $0.2 B
First Commercial, ARIES-AT, ($5B, Utility)
Savings to US = Big Bucks !

6. Recommendation
Assess the possibility that an advanced simulation model might supplement or replace the need for a Demo or Prototype power plant
If feasible, discuss with the Utility Advisory Board the acceptability of such an approach