1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Feb. 13, 2019
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

3. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

4. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

5. Soybean Meal Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

6. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

7. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

9. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

11. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

14. Arable land

15. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
92.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
176.4
176.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,609
14,420
14,930
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
1,735
Imports 67 57 36 40 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,939
16,600
16,715
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,304
5,375
5,575
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,605
5,700
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,451
1,465
1,490
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,450
2,425
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,799
14,865
15,190
Ending Stocks
1,525
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.60
3.90
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 15 15

16. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.2
89.2
82.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
51.6
50.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,412
4,544
4,090
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438
910
Imports 24 22 20 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,735
5,002
5,025
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,090
2,075
Seed & Residual
122
146
113
127
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
1,875
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,297
4,092
4,277
Ending Stocks
748
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
8.75
Source: USDA-WAOB, w/ adjustment for 2019 16 16

17. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 17 17

18. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 18 18

19. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 19 19

20. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 20 20

21. Current Corn Futures
3.99
3.63
Source: CME Group, 2/12/2019

22. Current Soybean Futures
9.48
8.77
Source: CME Group, 2/12/2019

23. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

24. 2019/20 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

25. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

26. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices and ISU costs

27. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: