Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
1
Agile Forces – Complex Adaptive Systems and the Scenario Space
John Medhurst, Larrainzar Consulting Jim Moffat, Tom Scales, Stuart Taylor Policy and Capability Studies
2
Relevance to Strategy Management
HLOC: ”will increasingly have to address issues associated with new and complex situations where scenarios are emergent” and therefore “treats and considers the whole environment as a complex, unpredictable and adaptive system”. FD process: capable of delivering forces able to meet challenges arising within increasingly complex changeable environments. agile force development process that develop forces. robust to the broad range of possible futures. 26 May 2019
3
Relevance to Strategy Management
HLOC: ”will increasingly have to address issues associated with new and complex situations where scenarios are emergent” and therefore “treats and considers the whole environment as a complex, unpredictable and adaptive system”. FD process: capable of delivering forces able to meet challenges arising within increasingly complex changeable environments. agile force development process that develop forces. robust to the broad range of possible futures. The future is uncertain So we need robust capability, not optimal capability 26 May 2019
4
26 May 2019
5
26 May 2019
6
26 May 2019
7
26 May 2019
8
26 May 2019
9
26 May 2019
10
26 May 2019
11
26 May 2019
12
26 May 2019
13
26 May 2019
14
26 May 2019
15
26 May 2019
16
26 May 2019
17
26 May 2019
18
26 May 2019
19
26 May 2019
20
26 May 2019
21
26 May 2019
22
26 May 2019
23
26 May 2019
24
26 May 2019
25
26 May 2019
26
26 May 2019
27
26 May 2019
28
26 May 2019
29
26 May 2019
30
26 May 2019
31
within 3% of expected value for completely random jumps
Median = 0, variance within 3% of expected value for completely random jumps 26 May 2019
32
26 May 2019
33
Conclusions It is possible to map conflicts onto a quantitative five dimensional space based upon the DCDC dimensions of the future Doing this shows that the UK, US, French and Israeli experience of conflict over the past 60 years has shown high levels of variability in the scale and nature of conflicts. The historical record shows evidence of both complex behaviour and randomness, with the extrapolation of recent experience being a poor guide to the next conflict Though some trends exist, most notably a reduction in the level of military deaths relative to population, the trends account for only 10-20% of the variability where they exist. Finally, consideration of the likelihood of extreme shocks also indicates that they are non-negligible over the kind of planning horizon required of defence planners. 26 May 2019
Similar presentations
