1. An Audience with Justin Bronk, Research Fellow, RUSI
Brought to you by
The Air and Space Power Association

2. The Disruptors in Airpower
Justin Bronk, Airpower and Technology Research Fellow

3. Insufficient Answers For Existing Disruptors…3

4. 4th Generation Will Be Around For Ages
Trump budget calls for 72 fighters per year
Some of those look likely to be F-15EXs
Even if ALL are F-35s, still a 50/50 force by 2030
In European Theatre, ratio will be 80/20 on current trends by 2030.
Allowing the 4th Gen to ‘keep pace’ is not a luxury, it is a requirement. 4

5. Datalink Denial: A Fact of Life
R-330Zh
“Zhitel”
Krashuka 4

6. Disruptor No.1 - UCAVs X-45A Proved Concepts in 2005
Swarming behaviour
Armed, live fire tests
Extremely effective at SEAD/DEAD
Human mission planning, ROE set but NOT remotely flown

7. Irresistible Advantages
Hugely reduced cost of ownership
Design flexibility during production and service life
Semi-Expendable
Reconstitution possible for larger powers
Technology feasible today – Policy choices not technology holding this back.
Potential for significant improvement in lethality

8. Automation, Not Autonomy?
Mission Set Dependent
Suitable for High-Intensity Conflict
Not suitable where complex questions of combatant identification required
Restricting autonomy is designing in vulnerability to (at best) being ‘mission killed’.
‘If it locks you up with one of these known waveforms or engages you, kill it’.

9. The Silence of the US

10. Chinese Intentions Are Clear
Sharp Sword
Dark Sword
CH-7

11. Su-70 ‘Okhotnik’ (Hunter)
20 Ton class strike UCAV
Highly Autonomous, Loyal Wingman or both?
Poor engine integration
AL-31F with afterburner

12. UCAV Implications New Industrial Paradigm Possible
Deterrence and Crisis Stability Implications
Users will make the rules – the ‘haves and have nots’
Notions of Meaningful Human Control playing catch-up
Can they be kept in high-intensity scenarios alone?
New tactics and institutional structures required to optimise manned/unmanned integration.

13. Disruptor No.2 - Swarms Will change point defence paradigm
Stand in jamming options
Range still limited
Cost
Dependent on launch vehicles
Asymmetric weapon

14. Disruptor No.3 – Directed Energy Weapons
Three Main Considerations:
GBAD
End game platform defence
Offensive Usage
Main Factors
Power and Coolant Available
Engagement Window
Beam Distortion

15. Disruptor No.4 – AI Driven Electronic Warfare
Data fidelity and labelling becoming a limiting factor for DAS
Pace of threat signal evolution outpacing DI-driven ways of working
F-35 is the first platform with the required onboard sensor suite, processing power and architecture
Double edged sword

16. Disruptor No.5 – A Return To Large Airframes
Drivers:
US Air Force and PLAAF
Range
Multimission payloads
Terminal Defence Options
UCAV-teaming

17. Weapons Free!

18. Any Questions?