1. EURODELTA 3 – Trend Analysis
Experiment Overview
A. Colette, K. Cuvelier, S. Aksoyoglu, B. Bessagnet, J. Bieser, G. Ciarelli, H. Fagerli, M. Garcia, L. Gonzales, M. Mircea, M.T. Pay, V. Raffort, L. Rouïl, Y. Roustan, M. Schaap, R. Stern, P. Thunis, S. Tsyro, L. White, P. Wind

2. Scope Why Effectiveness of AQ Policies Relevance and ability of models
What
Simulations of 1990, 2000, 2010
Sensitivity analyses (emissions, meteorology, boundary conditions)
20-yr trend
Who
EMEP + 6 CTMs:
CMAQ, CHIMERE, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI, POL’AIR3D, WRF-Chem

3. Modelling Setup Consensus specifications: Domain (25km)
Meteorology (WRF/ERA-interim)
Emissions (GAINS)
Boundary Conditions (Obs)
Output format
For more details, see:
ED3-Trends

4. Emissions: National Totals
Initial plan:
CEIP « as used in EMEP models »
+ GAINS gap-filling for PM in the 1990s
Change March 2015 for GAINS / ECLIPSE-V5
GAINS national totals (updated after TSAP2013)
NOx, Europe
PPM25, Europe

5. Emission: Spatialisation
Provided by INERIS
Europe-wide road and shipping proxies for SNAP7 and 8 (constant for 20yrs)
Population density proxy for residential emissions (constant for 20yrs)
EPRTR for industrial sources location and magnitude (time varying over the past 20yrs).
Bottom-up emission inventories as spatialisation proxies for France & United Kingdom.
TNO-MACC inventory for NH3 emissions
Reconstructed default (except for traffic&road) from officially reported data
PPM10
All sectors

6. Workplan Tier # years Experiment Key question Tier 1 1A
Experiment
Key question
Tier 1 1A
Reference for 1990, 2000, 2010
How do model compare with observation in 1990, 2000, and 2010 ?
5 yrs
-> Comparison 1A & OBS 1B
Meteorology and boundary conditions of 2010 emissions of 1990, 2000
What if no emission change occurred in Europe ?
->  Comparison 1A vs. 1B
Tier 2 2A
Meteorology & emissions of 2010 boundary conditions of 1990, 2000
What if no emission changed in Europe ?
->  Comparison 2A vs. 1B 2B
Meteorology & emissions of 2010 modelled boundary conditions of 1990, 2000, 2010
What is the uncertainty related to boundary conditions ?
->  Comparison 2A & 2B
Tier 3 3A
21-yr reference trend
How do model capture the trend in observations ?
38 yrs
->  Comparison 3A & OBS 3B
21-yr trend with 2010 emissions
Does meteorological variability contribute to the AQ trend over the past 20 yrs?
->  Comparison 3A & 3B

7. Timeline INPUT MODEL ANALYSIS Agreement on workplan and specs.
Delivery of Domain, Meteo & Model Boun. Cond
Delivery of 2010 Obs. Boun. Cond. & Emissions
Delivery of 1990&2000 Obs. Boun. Cond. & Emissions
MODEL
deliver 2010 ref to the server
deliver Tier 1 to the server
deliver Tier 2 to the server
deliver Tier 3 to the server
ANALYSIS
Validation of reference setup (2010)
Analysis of Tier 1
Analysis of Tier 2&3
21/01/2015
21/01/2015
31/01/2015
25/03/2015
28/02/2015
28/02/2015
31/03/2015
10/04/2015
17/04/2015
15/03/2015
3/04/2015
30/06/2015
05/05/2015
30/09/2015
31/12/2015

8. NO2 (µg/m3): 1990, 2000, 2010 & annual change
3-model median tier 1A
Substantial decrease
Largest annual rate of change in 1990’s, except over large urban areas where decreases are important in the 2000s
Very little change in Eastern Countries over 2000s

9. PM10 (µg/m3): 1990, 2000, 2010 & annual change
3-model median tier 1A
Substantial decrease
Largest annual rate of change in the 1990’s

10. Key Questions Model validation
How do model compare with observations in 1990, 2000, and 2010 ?
How do models capture the trend in observations ?
For 2010: expand on ED3-campaign work (link with AQMEII)
Can we conclude on the uncertainties in emissions?
European policy effectiveness
What if no emission change occurred in Europe ?
Did “potency” changed over the past 20yrs?
Can we identify tipping points in SIA formation?
Non-European influence
What if no emission changed beyond Europe ?
What is the uncertainty related to boundary conditions ?
How can we avoid double-counting?
(link with TF-HTAP)
Meteorological variability
Does meteorological variability contribute to the AQ trend over the past 20 yrs?
Impacts
What model dynamical evaluation means for IAM?
Link with effect community (health & ecosystems)
Trends in aerosols direct radiative forcing

12. Modelling Domain
Regular lat/lon projection Resolution of dlat=0.25 and dlon=0.4, (about 25km).
ED3-Trends
ED3-Campaings
Euro-Cordex

13. Meteorology Rationale ECMWF/IFS was used for recent Campaign analyses
Need to find a consistent meteorological driver
EuroCordex Reanalysis
Hindcast with perfect boundary conditions (ERA-interim)
Used to evaluate regional climate models (Kotlarski et al., GMD 2014)
WRF Optimised & nudged configuration
Provided by Robert Vautard & Annemiek Stegehuis (LSCE/IPSL)
Namelist + Data available on ftp&dods server
Used by all modelling teams except:
WRF-CHEM: online (similar setup)
CMAQ: projection issues, re-running identical setup
LOTOS-EUROS (RACMO)

14. Boundary conditions
Observation-based, provided by met.no, simplified version of MSC-W
O3: Logan 3D climatology, matched to Mace Head temporal variability accounting for wind sectors
CH4=1870ppb
CCMI Global Model reanalysis
CamChem simulation available, will be used for sensitivity simulation
Observation courtesy of Peter Simmonds and Gerry Spain, and Model results courtesy of Thierno Doumbia, Katerina Sindelarova, Claire Granier

15. Emissions: other sources
Switch off:
European dust resuspension (keep desert dust inflow at the boundaries)
Forest fire
No constrain on:
Biogenic emissions
Temporal and VOC speciation profiles provided but not-compulsory