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PDWG Validation of the 2028 ADS PCM V1.0

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Presentation on theme: "PDWG Validation of the 2028 ADS PCM V1.0"— Presentation transcript:

1 PDWG Validation of the 2028 ADS PCM V1.0
Jamie Austin Production Cost Modeling Data Work Group (PDWG) – Chair August 21, 2018

2 Overview L&R Progress Report
Continued Validation of the 2028 ADS PCM V1.0 Fixes within CAISO Footprint Fixes by NTTG DS approval of PDWG proposed edits Review of Proposed Agenda for next in-person meeting, scheduled for August 28-29

3 L&R Progress Report Tyler Butikofer

4 Loads and Resource Balance by Energy

5 Thermal Generation Balance

6 Thermal Generation Balance – cont.
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

7 Renewable and Other Generation Balance

8 Renewable and Other Generation Balance
Western Electricity Coordinating Council

9 Fixes within CAISO Footprint
Yi Zhang, California ISO

10 CISC area Two Peaker units that were originally parked should be modeled as units in service Grapeland Peaker at 29305 CTRPKGEN_29308 at 29308 Remove the previously modeled BC_25187_1C and BS_25188_1E units

11 Hyatt and Thermalito hydro units
Remove three pumped storage units at Hyatt EdwardCHyatt2, EdwardCHyatt4, and EdwardCHyatt6 Change Thermalito_2, Thermalito_3, Thermalito_4 from Pumped Storage to Hydro, with Load Following flag checked

12 NW topology (per BPA’s comments)
Klamath Falls area Remove Capt. Jack – Klamath Falls 500 kV, and keep Capt. Jack-Snow Goose – Klamath Falls 500 kV Remove Malin – Klamath Falls 230 kV, and keep Malin – Snow Goose – Klamath Falls 230 kV Meridian – Sam’s Valley – Dixonville 500 kV line impedances are wrong Buckley – Slatt series capacitor is missing

13 Use Kevin proposed changes for Antelope Nuke, but set the Min Up/Down time to 168 hours (previously they were 1 hour) Use Kevin proposed changes for Antelope Nuke, but set the Min Up/Down time to 168 hours and NOT MUST RUN

14 Continued Validation of the 2028 ADS PCM V1.0
Jamie Austin

15 Fixes by NTTG Change # NTTG Change Comment 1 Placed B2H in-service.
Consistent with the NTTG Transmission Plan 2 Adjusted NTTG Branch Data where appropriate, to reflect the correct Ratings. Applied edits submitted by TPs 3 Updated Solar and Wind Resources to Match NTTG data submittals in Q1, This included adding associated transmission and transformers to integrate missing resources. A number of small solar project (13) and wind Projects (6) were missing. 4 Deleted double entry of Wyoming wind associated with Energy Vision 2020 additions (e.g. generators assigned names WYWINDXX vs. Energy VisionXX). Inadvertent double entry 5 Jim Bridger Coal - changed the heat rate to be the same for all 4 - units Two of the units were dispatching at 50% below the other two. 6 Retired Dave Johnston coal plant, all 4-units Consisted with March 2018 L&R data submittal in Q1. 7 Retired North Valmy units - 1 & 2 Consisted with March 2018 L&R data submittal in Q1 and published retirement dates prior to 2026. 8 Retired assumed Naughton #3 Gas 9 Random edits to connect AZ and CFE disconnected units To allow units to be dispatched in PCM, no dispatch changes 10 Revised Antelope Nuclear Dispatch Assumptions: Must Run Outage Duration: 135 (8760*3.09%/2)5.6 days Modeled 298 hours (1 event = 3.4%) Set Heat Rate to 10% dispatch range Approved by PDWG, July, 2018 11 Following edits were made to counter negative pricing (-$25) applied to California wind and solar that is caused hydro to cycle for solar and wind outside of California: Changed default setting to NO-Spill on NTTG hydro plants. Changed dispatch cost for Core Columbia River/Lower Snake projects to -$70 Added negative $50 dollars (-$50) to hydro dispatch cost on hydro outside of California Hydro Dispatch Option: Region Load – Wind – Solar 12 NW Tier 1 Energy: Changed BPA area Coefficient in nomogram to so modeled Tier 1 energy matches target 13 Discounted Coal prices for all coal plants in WECC by 50%, to account for the fixed contract element. Significant share of coal cost are fixed Coal contracts are take or pay, e.g., contracted cost supports a 40% to 70%, Capacity Factor; this means modeled coal cost should be net burner-tip price.

16 Summary of PDWG Approved Edits
Approval Item # Proposed Fixes PDWG Discussion Approved by PDWG 1 Pancake Wheeling on PDCI – fix ownership on bus 26097, Sylmar to SCE or BPA July 17, 2018 2 Mismatch Wind/Solar Shapes - Align appropriate dispatch shape for all mismatch commit and dispatch shapes: Beacon Solar Area 3 Propose WECC update nuclear units to: Must Run Outage Duration: 135 (8760*3.09%/2) 5.6 days Modeled 298 hours (1 event:= 3.40%) Propose WECC update Antelope to: w/10% dispatch range July 17, 24, August 8, 2018 4 NW Tier 1 Energy - change BPA area Coefficient in nomogram to so modeled Tier 1 energy matches target July 24, 2018 July 31, 20185 5 Spilled Hydro Proposed Change: Set Hydro dispatch from load to Load-Wind-Solar with Wind at 0% and Solar at 50%? Review Hydro set to ‘Hourly Shape’ and make recommendations to change to ‘Load Following’: Yale, Swift 1, Merwin, J.F.Carr, Spring Creek, Keswick, Folsom,.. 6 Fuel Prices – Discounting coal prices for all coal plants by discounting burner tip full prices by 50%; essentially just retaining the fixed elements of the contract. 7 Modeling Hydro Data issue – modify monthly coefficients to original values

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