1. Overview: Benefit Analysis in CAFE
Paul Watkiss Mike Holland
AEA Technology Environment EMRC

2. Project Overview Multi-disciplinary team of experts from across Europe
Phase 1 Development and baseline
Phase 2 Scenarios
Methodology
outline
Dec 2003
Revised
methodology
March 2004
Draft final
methodology
Late June 2004
Peer Review
July-August 2004
Consultation workshop Dec. 2003
Comments
Consultation workshop July 5th
Final
methodology
September 2004
Feedback into
scenarios
Autumn 2004
Final
Scenarios
Apr 2005
Completion
June 2005
Final baseline analysis

3. Conceptional Approach:
Impact Pathway
EMISSIONS
tonnes/year of SO 2
DISPERSION
TREMOVE,
EMEP,
RAINS, etc.
Increase in ambient concentrations
e.g.
ppb SO
for all affected regions 2
Stock at risk
e.g. inventory building materials
IMPACT
CONCENTRATION
IMPACT
Using exposure-response curves,
e.g. change in building erosion
Benefits
Model
COST
Damage costs, WTP estimates

4. Which Benefits? Traditionally quantified and monetised
Health (mortality and morbidity)
Building materials
Crops
Ecosystems
Cultural Heritage
Other (visibility) - possible impact pathway/MCA
Ancillary (greenhouse gas emissions)
Social (employment, deprivation/inequality)
Economic (employment/growth)
Traditionally
quantified and monetised
impact pathway approach
Traditionally
quantified not monetised
- Possible valuation/MCA
Traditionally
outside analysis
- Separate analysis - MCA

5. Phase 1 RAINS ‘CAFE’ Benefits model (GIS) Automated Impact Pathway
pollutants SO2, NOX, PM10, VOC, ammonia each cell, 50 * 50 km2 grid across Europe
‘CAFE’ Benefits model (GIS)
Agreed valuation endpoint list
(health, buildings, crops, etc)
Stock at Risk
(population, buildings, crops, etc)
Agreed dose-response list
Automated
Impact Pathway
Analysis
Additional components analysis
MCA component
(e.g. cultural buildings, ecosystems?)
GEM Macro-economic model (country by country)
Social analysis
Phase 1

6. Phase 2