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Optimal Risky Portfolios

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Presentation on theme: "Optimal Risky Portfolios"— Presentation transcript:

1 Optimal Risky Portfolios
Chapter 8

2 Risk Reduction with Diversification
St. Deviation Unique Risk Market Risk Number of Securities

3 Two-Security Portfolio: Return
rp = W1r1 + W2r2 W1 = Proportion of funds in Security 1 W2 = Proportion of funds in Security 2 r1 = Expected return on Security 1 r2 = Expected return on Security 2

4 Two-Security Portfolio: Risk
p2 = w1212 + w2222 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2) 12 = Variance of Security 1 22 = Variance of Security 2 Cov(r1r2) = Covariance of returns for Security 1 and Security 2

5 Covariance Cov(r1r2) = 1,212 1,2 = Correlation coefficient of returns 1 = Standard deviation of returns for Security 1 2 = Standard deviation of returns for Security 2

6 Correlation Coefficients: Possible Values
Range of values for 1,2 > r > -1.0 If r= 1.0, the securities would be perfectly positively correlated If r= - 1.0, the securities would be perfectly negatively correlated

7 Three-Security Portfolio
rp = W1r1 + W2r2 + W3r3 2p = W1212 + W2212 + W3232 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2) + 2W1W3 Cov(r1r3) + 2W2W3 Cov(r2r3)

8 In General, For An N-Security Portfolio:
rp = Weighted average of the n securities p2 = (Consider all pairwise covariance measures)

9 Two-Security Portfolio
E(rp) = W1r1 + W2r2 p2 = w1212 + w2222 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2) p = [w1212 + w2222 + 2W1W2 Cov(r1r2)]1/2

10 Portfolios with Different Correlations
13%  = -1  = .3  = -1  = 1 %8 St. Dev 12% 20%

11 Correlation Effects The relationship depends on correlation coefficient. -1.0 <  < +1.0 The smaller the correlation, the greater the risk reduction potential. If r = +1.0, no risk reduction is possible.

12 Minimum-Variance Combination
2 E(r2) = .14 = .20 Sec 2 12 = .2 E(r1) = .10 = .15 Sec 1 1 r22 - Cov(r1r2) = W1 s2 s2 - 2Cov(r1r2) + 1 2 W2 = (1 - W1)

13 Minimum-Variance Combination:  = .2
W1 = (.2)2 - (.2)(.15)(.2) (.15)2 + (.2)2 - 2(.2)(.15)(.2) = .6733 W2 = ( ) = .3267

14 Risk and Return: Minimum Variance
rp = .6733(.10) (.14) = .1131 = [(.6733)2(.15)2 + (.3267)2(.2)2 + p 1/2 2(.6733)(.3267)(.2)(.15)(.2)] s 1/2 = [.0171] = .1308 p

15 Minimum - Variance Combination:  = -.3
W1 = (.2)2 - (.2)(.15)(.2) (.15)2 + (.2)2 - 2(.2)(.15)(-.3) = .6087 W2 = ( ) = .3913

16 Risk and Return: Minimum Variance
rp = .6087(.10) (.14) = .1157 s = [(.6087)2(.15)2 + (.3913)2(.2)2 + p 1/2 2(.6087)(.3913)(.2)(.15)(-.3)] s 1/2 = [.0102] = .1009 p

17 Extending Concepts to All Securities
The optimal combinations result in lowest level of risk for a given return. The optimal trade-off is described as the efficient frontier. These portfolios are dominant.

18 Minimum-Variance Frontier of Risky Assets
Efficient frontier Individual assets Global minimum variance portfolio Minimum variance frontier St. Dev.

19 Extending to Include Riskless Asset
The optimal combination becomes linear. A single combination of risky and riskless assets will dominate.

20 Alternative CALs E(r) CAL (P) CAL (A) M M P P CAL (Global
minimum variance) A A G F P P&F M A&F

21 Portfolio Selection & Risk Aversion
U’’ U’ U’’’ E(r) Efficient frontier of risky assets S P Q Less risk-averse investor More risk-averse investor St. Dev

22 Efficient Frontier with Lending & Borrowing
CAL E(r) B Q P A rf F St. Dev


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