1. What is our Vision for Decadal
Climate Research in the WCRP?

2. Broad interests in decadal climate variability and prediction
WGSIP
Sub-seasonal to (inter)annual prediction
WGCM
Forced climate change and natural variability
CMIP
Coordinated experimentation including scenarios, decadal prediction ….
CLIVAR
“Focus” on decadal variability and predictability
Ocean aspects, initialization
Grand Challenge of Near Term Climate Prediction
research and development leading toward operational annual, multi-annual forecasts
IPCC
Near term climate a focus of AR5 and expected to be an important contribution to AR6
DCPP
Decadal climate prediction project currently reports to WGSIP and WGCM, is an endorsed CMIP MIP and has connections to all groups
Grand Challenge
WGCM
WGSIP
CMIP
CLIVAR

3. Where does a decadal climate fit?
day-week week-year year -decade decade-century
Weather
forecasting
Sub-seasonal
seasonal
Decadal
climate
Climate
simulation
At least currently, approaches and results depend on timescale:
atmosphere/land/ocean initialization, ensemble generation
resolution of models, ensemble size
independent realizations, start dates
external forcing, drift
etc.

4. Where does a decadal climate fit?
WGSIP
WGCM
WGNE
Decadal
Climate
Decadal variability and prediction:
- annual, multi-annual, up to a decade or two
- initialized forecasts of both forced and internally generated
components of variability

5. An Example of Overlap DCVP focus group 50% of membership in common
across DCPP and DCVP
>50% of NTCP part of DCPP, DCVP

6. Reorganization/renewal of Panel
presumably basic organization not changing (for now)
what should we consider for reorganization/renewal
who wants to cycle off/has not been active?
what of reduction of “overlap”?
do we have sufficient representation from major modelling groups?
what special knowledge on “end-to-end” aspects of decadal prediction does the panel need?
initialization, ensemble generation
prediction and predictability
bias adjustment, combination, calibration, verification
users?