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The Bull Romps Again! Can the Good Times Last?

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Presentation on theme: "The Bull Romps Again! Can the Good Times Last?"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Bull Romps Again! Can the Good Times Last?

2 What’s Behind the Rebound
Avoided: “Black hole for black gold” Dramatic revival for junk bonds Dollar off about 3% YTD Green shoots for U.S. economy (PMIs) But Europe, Japan, China still weak

3 Potential Upside SPX 2017 operating earnings estimate of
$ (FactSet) Year-end 2016 forward P/E unchanged at 16.3X Result: S&P 500 trades at 2209

4 Bullish Indicators Chartist 90% rule CBOE equity put-call ratio
Fund managers’ cash

5 Breadth Stampede

6 Options Traders Gloomy

7 Fund Managers Scared

8 Stock Picker’s Advantages
Market indexes showing their FANG Earnings overreactions (AAPL!) Sector anomalies (Big Pharma)

9 Take Your Meds AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) Roche Holding (OTC: RHHBY)
Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) Teva Pharmaceutical (NYSE: TEVA)

10 “Old” Tech on the Rebound
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)

11 Bond Investor’s Dilemma
Interest rates rise: downward pressure on prices for Treasuries, munis Interest rates fall: defaults on lower-grade paper multiply Conclusion: If you can accept the risks, go with stocks that pay growing dividends

12 Gold: Insiders Dumping

13 Oil: The Same Story (Almost)

14 Your Turn to Ask


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