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Published byKristopher Sparks Modified over 5 years ago
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The Bull Romps Again! Can the Good Times Last?
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What’s Behind the Rebound
Avoided: “Black hole for black gold” Dramatic revival for junk bonds Dollar off about 3% YTD Green shoots for U.S. economy (PMIs) But Europe, Japan, China still weak
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Potential Upside SPX 2017 operating earnings estimate of
$ (FactSet) Year-end 2016 forward P/E unchanged at 16.3X Result: S&P 500 trades at 2209
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Bullish Indicators Chartist 90% rule CBOE equity put-call ratio
Fund managers’ cash
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Breadth Stampede
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Options Traders Gloomy
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Fund Managers Scared
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Stock Picker’s Advantages
Market indexes showing their FANG Earnings overreactions (AAPL!) Sector anomalies (Big Pharma)
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Take Your Meds AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) Roche Holding (OTC: RHHBY)
Sanofi (NYSE: SNY) Teva Pharmaceutical (NYSE: TEVA)
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“Old” Tech on the Rebound
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)
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Bond Investor’s Dilemma
Interest rates rise: downward pressure on prices for Treasuries, munis Interest rates fall: defaults on lower-grade paper multiply Conclusion: If you can accept the risks, go with stocks that pay growing dividends
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Gold: Insiders Dumping
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Oil: The Same Story (Almost)
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Your Turn to Ask
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