1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook Women Grain Marketing Meeting Hampton, Iowa
June 12, 2013
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
86.4
88.2
91.9
97.2
97.3
Yield
(bu./acre)
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
156.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,092
12,447
12,360
10,780
14,005
Beg. Stocks
1,673
1,708
1,128
989
769
Imports 8 28 29
150 25
Total Supply
14,774
14,182
13,516
11,919
14,799
Feed & Residual
5,125
4,795
4,545
4,400
5,200
Ethanol
4,591
5,019
5,011
4,650
4,900
Food, Seed, & Other
1,370
1,407
1,428
1,400
1,450
Exports
1,980
1,834
1,543
700
1,300
Total Use
13,066
13,055
12,527
11,150
12,850
Ending Stocks
1,949
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.55
5.18
6.22
6.95
4.80
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
77.5
77.4
75.0
77.2
77.1
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
43.5
41.9
39.6
44.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,359
3,329
3,094
3,015
3,390
Beg. Stocks
138
151
215
169
125
Imports 15 14 16 25
Total Supply
3,512
3,495
3,325
3,209
3,530
Crush
1,752
1,648
1,703
1,660
1,695
Seed & Residual
110
130 90 95
119
Exports
1,499
1,501
1,362
1,330
1,450
Total Use
3,361
3,280
3,155
3,085
3,264
Ending Stocks
265
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
9.59
11.30
12.50
14.35
10.75
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Corn Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Corn Emergence Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Corn Yields
Year with planting progress like this year

7. Soybean Planting Stats
Source: USDA-NASS

8. Soybean Yields
Year with planting progress like this year

9. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 11 11

12. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Soy Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Corn Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Advance Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

19. Ethanol Stocks

20. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

21. Source: DOE-EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

22. Current Corn Futures
5.11
5.08
4.91
Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013

23. Current Soybean Futures
12.51
12.13
11.57
Source: CME Group, 6/12/2013

24. New Crop Prices

25. Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Soy Prices vs. Costs

28. Source: NWS-CPC

29. 3 Month Outlook - Temps

30. 3 Month Outlook - Precip

31. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond
Supply/demand concerns
Planting and emergence issues for both corn and soybeans
Old crop is still short and new crop is not proceeding quickly
Corn demand rebounding? Ethanol has recovered
2012/13
USDA
2013/14 USDA
2013/14
Futures
(6/12/13)
Corn
$6.95
$4.80
$5.08
Soybeans
$14.35
$10.75
$12.51

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: