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Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Crop Market Outlook Crop Advantage Series Iowa City, Iowa Jan. 25, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1
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U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres) 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.0 Yield (bu./acre) 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 170.8 Production (mil. bu.) 13,829 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,060 Beg. Stocks 821 1,232 1,731 1,737 2,355 Imports 36 32 67 55 50 Total Supply 14,686 15,479 15,401 16,940 16,465 Feed & Residual 5,040 5,280 5,131 5,600 5,500 Ethanol 5,124 5,200 5,206 5,325 Food, Seed, & Other 1,369 1,401 1,429 1,435 1,440 Exports 1,920 1,867 1,898 2,225 1,950 Total Use 13,454 13,748 13,664 14,585 14,215 Ending Stocks 2,250 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.46 3.70 3.61 3.40 3.30 Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2
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U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted (mil. acres) 76.8 83.3 82.7 83.4 85.5 Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 47.5 48.0 52.1 47.9 Production (mil. bu.) 3,358 3,927 3,926 4,307 4,050 Beg. Stocks 141 92 191 197 420 Imports 72 33 24 25 30 Total Supply 3,570 4,052 4,140 4,528 4,500 Crush 1,734 1,873 1,886 1,930 1,935 Seed & Residual 107 146 122 128 130 Exports 1,638 1,842 1,936 2,050 2,100 Total Use 3,478 3,862 3,944 4,108 4,165 Ending Stocks 336 Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 13.00 10.10 8.95 9.50 9.35 Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3
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Corn Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
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Soy Yields Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
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Drought Monitor Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 6 6
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South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 7 7
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World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8
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World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9
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Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension
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Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension
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U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12
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Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
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Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS
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Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve
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Corn Grind for Ethanol
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Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME
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Current Corn Futures 4.01 3.90 3.55 Source: CME Group, 1/24/2017
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Current Soybean Futures
10.08 10.00 9.63 Source: CME Group, 1/24/2017
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2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields
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2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields
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2017/18 Crop Margins
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Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
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Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs
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Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker:
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