1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Oct. 22, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
180.7
-0.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,778
-49
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
138
Imports 67 57 36 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,934
16,968 89
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,302
5,550
-25
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,601
5,650
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,480
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,475 75
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,793
15,155
Ending Stocks
1,813 39
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.50
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
Δ2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.1
-0.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
53.1
0.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,411
4,690 -4
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438 44
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,734
5,153 40
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,070
Seed & Residual
122
146
112
138
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
2,060
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,268
Ending Stocks
885
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. USDA Objective Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

8. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9. USDA Objective Soy Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Pork Production
Source: USDA-NASS

14. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Source: LMIC

16. Beef Production
Source: USDA-NASS

17. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Source: LMIC

19. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

25. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

26. Current Corn Futures
4.02
3.69
Source: CME Group, 10/19/2018

27. Current Soybean Futures
9.09
8.51
Source: CME Group, 10/19/2018

28. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

29. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

30. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

31. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

32. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: