1. PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October Harmonised Techniques and Representative River Basin Data for Assessment and Use of Uncertainty Information in Integrated Water Management (HarmoniRiB) Jens Christian Refsgaard Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)
The problem
why do we need uncertainty assessments ?
different needs at different steps in the modelling process (links to HarmoniQuA)
Uncertainty assessment methodologies - HarmoniRiB
Links to WFD implementation
Example of elements in PRB case study
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

2. PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004
Problem statement #1 Uncertainty should affect the selection of appropriate modelling tool
“We do not need complex hydrological models which we do not understand and where the output is known to be uncertain”
“Instead we want simple models that are reliable”
Statement from water manager responsible for implementation of Water Framework Directive (Harmoni-CA conference, Brussels February 2004)
 Uncertainty assessments of model predictions both for simple and complex models essential for bridging the perception gap between scientists and practitioners
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

3. Consultant # 1
Consultant # 2
Problem statement #2 Uncertainty should affect water management decisions
Copenhagen County project on identification of suitable methods for assessing groundwater vulnerability (2000) Assessments from five consultants on areas vulnerable to nitrate pollution from diffuse sources
Consultant # 3
Consultant # 4
Different concpts of dominant processes that governed whether an area was vulnerable or not
some based on DRASTIC
some focussed on comprehensive flow and transport modelling
others focussed a lot on geochemicl processes in order to evaluate the nitrate reduction potential in the catchment
Consultant # 5
Vulnerable areas
Very vulnerable
Vulnerable
Less vulnerable
Well protected

4. State of knowledge about ‘reality’ (uncertainty concepts)
Ignorance: unaware of imperfect knowledge
State of knowledge about ‘reality’ (uncertainty concepts)
Certainty
(outcome known)
‘Bounded uncertainty’
(all possible outcomes known)
‘Unbounded uncertainty’
(not all outcomes known)
No outcomes,
“Do not know”
Some outcomes
and probabilities
Some outcomes,
No probabilities
Ignorance
No outcomes do not know = recognised ignorance
All probabilities known
Some probabilities known
(rare)
No probabilities known
Quantitative Qualitative
Scenarios Cannot formalise

5. Where and how does uncertainty come into the modelling process
Harmonising Quality Assurance in model based catchment and river basin management (HarmoniQuA)
HarmoniQuA - another CATCHMOD project dealing with quality assurance in the modelling process
Modelling protocol with five main steps
Uncertainty is handled differently at different steps in the modelling process

6. Problem framing, identification of uncertainty sources, water manager and stakeholder perceptions and priorities
Dialogue between modeller and water manager/stakeholders
Modeller reconsiders accuracy requirements
(Comprehensive) uncertainty analyses

7. PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004
Project objectives
To establish a practical methodology and a set of tools for assessing and describing uncertainty originating from data and models
To provide a conceptual model for data management and data base software that can handle uncertain data
To establish well documented datasets (including uncertainty estimates) for eight river basins and make these data available for future research projects (’virtual laboratory’)
To test the developed methodologies through a number of case studies focusing on integration of uncertainty and socio-economic aspects
To disseminate the results among researchers and end users across Europe
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

8. HarmoniRiB - River basin network
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

9. Data being collected from river basins
All data necessary to conduct research projects of relevance for implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive
Time series
meteorological data
rivers (quantity, quality and ecology)
lakes (quantity, quality and ecology)
groundwater (quantity, quality and ecology)
transitional and coastal waters (quantity, quality and ecology)
Spatial data (GIS themes)
land use
pressures
socio-economic data (water users)
system characteristics
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

10. PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004
Data uncertainty
Time x y
Temporal data
Spatial data
“Guidelines for assessing data uncertainty”
First draft version, September 2004
Final version, available on February 2005
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

11. PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004
Uncertainty tools
Data uncertainty
Uncertainty propagation through models
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

12. Links to WFD implementation
Mainly contribution to “Programme of measures”
Database software for handling WFD type data, including information on data uncertainty
Datasets from eight river basins - for use in future research projects on WFD related issues
Methodologies and tools on uncertainty assessments tested on case studies
example from Odense PRB
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

13. Fyns Amt Measure “WFD-scenario” Scenario on agricultural measures in
2000
Odense Fjord loading today (flow normalized):
63.000
59 Dkr/kgN
1060
1600
Total reduction and total costs
Cost efficiency – average 19 38
3200 (4,6%)
Catch-crops: Optimised use
of existing catch-crops
7.175
287 25 50
2500 (3,6%)
Organic farming - increased
area - 29 57
1470 (2%)
Reduction in cultivated area (urbanisation)
16.200
300 54
108
17% reduced livestock production (10000 LU pigs)
2.960 40 74
148
10% higher utilisation of
N in all manure
1.302 14 93
185
5000 (7,1%)
Catch-crops: Increased use
on areas with manure
14.000
125
112
214
New forests on
cultivated areas
11.600
400
4000 (5,7%)
Wetlands
in River-valleys
10.160
254
508
20% reduction on national N-fertilizer quota
Cost +
Cost eff.
1000 Dkr
Dkr./kg N removed
Reduced loading
Odense Fjord
Tonnes N
Reduced
Leaching
Tonnes
Nitrogen
Area - ha
(percent of
agricultural area)
Measure
Fyns Amt
“WFD-scenario”
Scenario on
agricultural
measures in
the catchment of
Odense Fjord to
meet environmental
objectives
Source:
Danish Ministry
for Food, Agriculture and
Fisheries
and
Danish Forest and
Nature Agency
December 2003

14. Uncertanties on effects and uncertainties of costs
PoM 1
Uncertain
data
Effects of… + =
models
effects 2 3
Difficult decision: 2 or 3? =
Costs of alternative programmes
of measures
Uncertain
data
models
costs
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004

15. PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004
More information
PRB Workshop, Ghent, 4-5 October 2004