1. COP 16
Portfolio Committee Presentation
17 November 2010

2. OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION
Overview of status of negotiations and political dynamics
Progress in negotiations under Convention and Kyoto Protocol (KP)

3. Current Status of the UNFCCC negotiations
Loss of momentum; recognition that COP 16 / CMP 6 will not achieve final agreement
Deep divisions between developed and developing countries
No agreement on shape and legal form of final outcome; one or two treaties or just operational decisions
As President of COP 17 / CMP 7, SA needs to push for clarity on this
Momentum to “balanced set of decisions”

4. Not much progress was achieved in 2010
So far, 4 meetings (April, June, Aug, Oct)
General agreement that focusing on the Adhoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) text will not yield immediate results
The meeting in Tianjin therefore decided to focus on AREAS where there might be general consensus.

5. Current Dynamics
USA not passed its climate and energy legislation; not ready to enter their target and financial pledges into legally binding treaty
Other developed countries not prepared to take on internationally binding targets for Second Commitment Period (CP2)
Some developed countries (Japan, Canada) insistent on their targets NOT in KP
China will not agree legal form till US signals
G77 & China fractured but united on 2 track framework; retains KP track; disagree legal form

6. Scenarios
Current pledges mean: over 70% of mitigation effort by developing countries
What are the scenarios:
Comprehensive package: 2 track Legally Binding Agreements (LBA)
Fragmentation: abandon prospects of LBA, focus on operational decisions, incremental.
Two step: middle road; accept that for now cant deliver global agreement; national action for now
Trend is to fragmentation: no movement on increasing ambition, on legal form, multiple forums

7. Progress in LCA and KP
LCA: Limited progress in negotiations under Convention AWG- LCA Chair proposed issues for decisions in Cancun: adaptation committee, new fund, technology mechanism, REDD mechanism, sectoral approach for agriculture, inscribing targets for Annex 1 (AI); actions Non-Annex 1 (NAI) Parties
KP: No progress, pledges remain the same; AI Parties insisting on establishing the LULUCF rules before reviewing their level of ambition

8. THANKS!