1. Ongoing and Planned Activities in Sub-seasonal Forecasting at the NCEP
Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center December 2011

2. Real-time Forecast Configuration
Coupled model
T126/L64
MOM4
16 runs/day; 45 day forecast
Initial conditions for the ocean, atmosphere, land are from the CFSR
Coupled analysis
T574
Real-time forecast products are calibrated based on the hindcasts climatology
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3. Hindcasts Period : 1999- 2010 4 runs/day; 45 day
Hindcasts are used for
Developing calibration climatologies (mean; standard deviation)
Skill assessments and skill masks
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4. Some Products
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5. MJO
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6. Global Tropical Hazard (GTH)
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7. Monthly Forecasts
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8. Monthly Forecasts
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9. Weekly Forecasts
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10. Weekly Forecasts
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11. Applications of Interest
MJO and Global Hazards
Prediction of consecutive days of extreme temperature and precipitation
Prediction of blocking and various circulation indices
Prediction of tropical storms (with specific interest in Atlantic Hurricanes)
Prediction of onset date, and active and break phases of various monsoons
Prediction of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)
Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center December 2011