1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Feb. 26, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
90.6
88.0
94.0
90.2
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
171.0
168.4
174.6
176.6
174.0
Production
(mil. bu.)
14,216
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,390
Beg. Stocks
1,232
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,352
Imports 32 67 57 50
Total Supply
15,479
15,401
16,942
16,947
16,922
Feed & Residual
5,280
5,120
5,467
5,550
5,475
Ethanol
5,200
5,224
5,439
5,525
5,650
Food, Seed, & Other
1,401
1,422
1,450
1,470
1,495
Exports
1,867
1,898
2,050
1,900
Total Use
13,748
13,664
14,649
14,595
14,520
Ending Stocks
2,272
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.70
3.61
3.36
3.30
3.40
Source: USDA 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
83.3
82.7
83.4
90.1
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
47.5
48.0
52.0
49.1
48.5
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,927
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,320
Beg. Stocks 92
191
197
302
530
Imports 33 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,052
4,140
4,515
4,718
4,875
Crush
1,873
1,886
1,899
1,950
1,980
Seed & Residual
146
122
141
139
135
Exports
1,842
1,936
2,174
2,100
2,300
Total Use
3,862
3,944
4,213
4,188
4,415
Ending Stocks
460
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
10.10
8.95
9.47
9.30
9.25
Source: USDA 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2017 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 6 6

7. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 7 7

8. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 9 9

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

15. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

16. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

18. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

19. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

21. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

23. Ethanol Production
Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

24. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

25. Current Corn Futures
4.11
3.98
3.52
Source: CME Group, 2/23/2018

26. Current Soybean Futures
10.09
9.87
9.66
Source: CME Group, 2/23/2018

27. 2017/18 Crop Margins

28. 2018/19 Crop Margins

29. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

30. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

31. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: