1. GMs in Europe: Reflections on the Economic Consequences Julian Park, Ian McFarlane

2. Background: Widespread international growth of GMs Financial benefits to farmers Limited growth in the EU…MON810 Limited benefits in the EU? But what are we potentially missing?

3. Transgenic maize cultivation in EU (GMO-Compass, 2010)

4. Estimating revenue foregone Estimates of areas where agronomic benefits may accrue Assumed if there was a problem then farmers would grow to overcome Focussed on maize, cotton, canola, soya, sugar beet Financial data mainly drawn from outside of Europe

5. Estimated maize benefits PG Economics estimated net annual average saving on cost of production (from lower insecticide use) over eight growing seasons consistently between 34-42/ha. the net increase in gross margin arising from enhanced yield was between 86-108/ha, but only in areas of high insect infestation. Difficult to estimate the area across which a benefit in terms of pest control will be derived

8. Oilseed rape cultivation in EU (kHa) (source: Eurostat) Assumed benefit per hectare of 30 to 49 Euros Across the whole area. Overall benefit 195-318 Million Euros

9. Estimated benefit to EU of adoption of transgenic crops, per crop cycle

10. Discussion Even if EU farmers had open access to GM crops, only some would derive a financial benefit from their growth. The current benefits may be limited…..gross crop output in 2010 was about 170 Bn. Farmers outside the EU are deriving an increasingly competitive advantage from increased yield or lower costs. In the medium term, EU will b missing out on advantages that will exploited elsewhere in the world

11. Recent papers Park J., McFarlane I., Phipps R., Ceddia G. (2010) The role of transgenic crops in sustainable development. Plant Biotech J 9, 2-21 Park J., McFarlane I., Phipps R., Ceddia G. (2011) The impact of the EU regulatory constraint of transgenic crops on farm income. New Biotech 28(4), 296-306