1. The larger setting: international trends and local-national effects Higher Education, Further Education and Work Based Learning Spring Conference, Cardiff 7 March 2019
Simon Marginson
ESRC/OFSRE Centre for Global Higher Education
Department of Education, University of Oxford, UK

2. The larger setting: international trends and local-national effects
Policy imperatives
Growth of participation in post-school education
Cross-border student mobility
Research and research collaboration
Brexit and financial sustainability

3. POLICY IMPERARTIVES

4. Trends in global income inequality Theil index: (a fall in the Theil index indicates that inequality is reducing)
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Global inequality
0.949
0.918
0.903
0.827
0.723
Inequality between countries
0.734
0.696
0.681
0.600
0.479
Inequality within countries
0.215
0.222
0.227
0.244
F. Bourguignon, The Globalisation of Inequality, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2015, p. 42

5. Spending on higher education: 2015 current USD, Purchasing Power Parity (UNESCO data)
country
spending 2015
($s million)
population 2015
Top 50 unis
ARWU 2016
Top 500 unis
United States
239,345
325.7 31
137
China
data n.a.
1390.0 41
Germany
48,781
82.5 2 38
Brazil
43,176
209.4 6
Japan (2017 spending data)
33,817
128.0 16
United Kingdom
33,802
61.4 7 37
France
33,641
62.3 22
Russia
29,253
136.7 3
Turkey
28,858
82.6 1
Canada
26,369
35.1 19
Mexico
24,420
119.1
South Korea
16,964
49.1 11
Australia
16,928
22.3 23

6. Common worldwide policy imperatives in post-school education
Access and participation (focus on social mobility?)
Employability of graduates
Relations with communities, stakeholders
Competition between institutions (not all countries)
Expanding role of research
Focus on student satisfaction / growth of fee charging
Value for money
Focus on non-university education (not all countries)

7. PARTICIPATION

8. World growth of tertiary education: 1970-2017 1970 = 1
World growth of tertiary education: = World Bank/UNESCO data Four fifths of tertiary enrolments are in degree programmes

9. World regional Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratios (%): 1970, 1990, 2010 and 2017
1970 (%)
1990 (%)
2010 (%)
2017 (%)
World
10.1
13.6
29.4
37.9
North America/ W. Europe
30.6
48.8
76.7
78.4
Central and Eastern Europe
30.2
34.2
69.1
80.3
Latin America and Caribbean
6.9
16.8
40.6
50.6
East Asia and Pacific
3.1
7.4
27.9
46.7
Arab States
6.1
11.3
25.5
32.4
Central Asia
n.a.
25.4
24.9
26.0
South and West Asia
4.3
5.8
21.2
Sub-Saharan Africa
0.9
3.0
7.5
9.0 .

10. Gross Tertiary Enrolment Ratio (%) World, North America/Western Europe, UK: 1971-2017

11. Comparative tertiary participation, OECD using Pat Clancy’s Participation Index and OECD data for 2014

12. CROSS-BORDER STUDENT MOBILITY

13. Total international/ foreign students in tertiary education, 1998-2016 (millions) OECD data 2018

14. Distribution of incoming students: 2016, OECD data

15. International students, UK: UNESCO data, 1998-2016

16. Students entering UK from China, India: 2008-09 to 2017-18, UK HESA data

17. International students, United States: IIE data, 1977-78 to 2017-18

18. International students, Australia: AEI data, 2002-2018
354,804
191,828
VET = Vocational Education and Training

19. On-shore international students UK, Australia, Canada: 2011, 2015, 2016
United States
709,565
907,251
971,417
United Kingdom
419,946
430,687
432,001
from Europe
129,564
129,129
141,263
rest of world
290,382
301,558
290,738
Australia
262,597
294,438
335,512
Canada
120,960
171,603
189,573

20. Incoming international students from Europe only Tertiary education in United States, UK, Australia and Canada: UNESCO data

21. Incoming international students from the world minus Europe Tertiary education in United States, UK, Australia and Canada: UNESCO data

22. RESEARCH AND RESEARCH COLLABORATION

23. R&D as proportion (%) of GDP, 1991-2016: USA, UK, Germany, China, Japan, South Korea

24. National investment in R&D, 2016 OECD data, $s billion, constant 2010 USD PPP

25. Growth in research paper output USA, UK and East Asia, 2003-2016

26. Annual number of research papers, USA, China, UK: 2003-2016

27. Universities with most high citation papers
University and country
Papers in top 1% citations
Papers in top 10% citations
Proportion of all papers in top 10%
Harvard U UNITED STATES
1096
7305
22.1%
Stanford U UNITED STATES
533
3441
22.4%
MIT UNITED STATES
429
2616
25.1%
UC Berkeley UNITED STATES
355
2557
21.6%
U Oxford UNITED KINGDOM
354
2732
18.8%
Johns Hopkins U UNITED STATES
337
2698
16.0%
U Cambridge UNITED KINGDOM
334
2407
18.4%
U Toronto CANADA
326
3088
13.9%
U College London UNITED KINGDOM
325
2532
17.8%
U Washington UNITED STATES
313
2429
16.8%
U Michigan UNITED STATES
308
2806
15.3%
UC Los Angeles UNITED STATES
302
2366
17.2%
Yale U UNITED STATES
290
2129
18.9%
U Pennsylvania UNITED STATES
288
2335
17.6%
U Columbia UNITED STATES
273
2192
17.9%

28. Growth in internationally co-authored science papers, all countries: 2003-2016

29. Percentage of papers internationally co-authored: 2003 and 2016

30. High intensity research collaboration
UNITED STATES
CHINA
UNITED KINGDOM
Israel
1.33
Singapore
2.03
Ireland
2.16
South Korea
1.23
Taiwan
1.73
Greece
1.74
China
1.19
Pakistan
Netherlands
1.50
Canada
1.13
United States
Denmark
1.43
1.05
Australia
1.15
Hungary
Mexico
1.04
Japan
1.09
Norway
1.40
Finland
1.28
Italy
1.27
Sweden
Belgium
1.26
Switzerland
1.21
Portugal
Spain
1.16
Poland
1.12
Germany
1.07
Austria
1.03
France
1.01
New Zealand
1.35
South Africa
Chile
1.00 indicates that the number of co-authored publications between the pair of countries is at the level that is expected given their overall rates of collaboration with all countries indicates very high intensity of collaboration relative to the expected level, i.e. a significant ‘bias’ in favour of that pairing within the overall pattern of cross-border networks indicates relatively exceptional intensity
Data - US Science and Engineering Indicators, National Science Foundation

31. Looking ahead: global field will evolve
Journey from US hegemony to multi-polarity will continue but American research universities will remain very strong
No end in sight to the rise of China. Strategic importance for world society of the Anglo-American encounter with China
India will lag in higher education and research yet increasingly, its demography will staff the world’s universities
US bilingualism may facilitate expanding global role of Latin America. Science in Brazil will advance
Saudi Arabia/Gulf States will invest more than perform
Russia finds international openness difficult to achieve and may continue to under-perform in science
As will Japan, if it does not re-invest
UK after Brexit is hard to predict!

32. BREXIT AND FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY

33. Financial and other implications of Brexit
Lost activity
Best case
Middle case
Worst case
FINANCIAL
Horizon 2020 and other research
No change (major net resource gain)
UK stays in most, but pays in full
Rest of world access only
ERDF, EIB and matching funds
UK government replaces all funds
Selective UK replacement funds
All funding vanishes
EU student revenues
Net gain, enough pay at higher fee
Modest decline affects many
Major reduction in many HEIs
NON-FINANCIAL
EU doctoral students
No change, flow as before
Loss of some very bright students
‘Not welcome’: big fall in numbers
EU-citizen academic staff
Broad High Skill Migration pathway
Some loss present and future staff
Sharp fall in EU-citizen numbers
Study abroad by UK students
Erasmus role is maintained
UK government mobility scheme
Sharp fall in outward mobility
European Research Council (ERC) and Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) schemes will be worth an estimated €1.3 billion to the UK over the next two years. The UK is currently the most successful country in hosting ERC grantees, ahead of Germany, but would immediately become ineligible in the event of no deal.