1. Male and female delinquent trajectories
Hans Landsheer
Cor van Dijkum
Utrecht University
The Netherlands

2. Goal of the study
Study of the differences between male and female delinquency trajectories during adolescence
The prediction of delinquency in late adolescence on the basis of earlier developments

3. Design 3 wave longitudinal panel study
Time lag of 3 years between measurements
270 Dutch adolecents in the age group 12-14
113 males
157 females
Self reported light delinquency, such as:
Vandalism
Theft

4. Specific research questions
a. Is there a group of female offenders who follow the same delinquency trajectory as male persistent offenders:
start at an early age,
persist throughout adolescence,
with a relatively high frequency of delinquent activity, including more serious offenses.
b. Do offenders who have refrained from delinquency at one or more points during the early phases of adolescence show a higher probability of later desistance in comparison to persistent offenders?
c. Can late-adolescent delinquency be predicted on the basis of earlier delinquency and social support?

5. Both these males and females are active at age < 10 years
Results ad a: Is there a group of female offenders who follow the same delinquency trajectory as male persistent offenders?
Both these males and females are active at age < 10 years
Persistent female adolescents are a far smaller proportion of their peers (males: 32,7% of all males; females: 12,7% of all females)
Furthermore, in comparison with their peers:
Both groups are persistently more active delinquents ( p < .01)
Both groups are also involved in more serious crimes ( p < .05)
Both groups have a low rate of desistance in late adolescence (23% males; 31% females)
Conclusion: there is a large sex difference. Females are far less frequently involved in light delinquency.
However, those females who are involved in delinquency follow a similar path as the males who are involved in delinquency.

6. Results ad b: desistance
Do offenders who report to
have refrained from delinquency for at least one year
at one or more points during the early phases of adolescence
show a higher probability of desistance in late adolescence in comparison with persistent offenders?

7. Male desistance Males Late adolescent desistance Crimgroups Proportion
1 Non-offenders
.77 13
2 Offenders who desist
.35 63
Persistent delinquents
.19 37
Total
113

8. Female desistance Females Late adolescent desistance Crimgroups
Proportion N
1 Non-offenders
.69 49
2 Offenders who desist
.50 88
Persistent delinquents
.30 20
Total
157

9. Results ad b. Non-persistence = refraining at least one year
Dependent variable:
Desistance at age 18-20
No interaction
F(1, 204) = 0.25, p > .10
Main effect of persistence
F(1, 204) = 5,71, p < .02
Main effect of sex
F(1,204) = 4,85, p < .03
Conclusions:
There are far less females involved in persistent light delinquency. However, there are as much males as females involved in non-persistent delinquency.
The developmental path of males and females are very similar. However, females are more often inclined to desist at age 18-20, and especially the persistent delinquent females.

10. Results ad c.
Can late-adolescent delinquency be predicted on the basis of earlier delinquency and social support?
Table 2. Summary of Two Hierarchical Multiple Regression Models for the Prediction of the Frequency of Delinquent Behavior in Late Adolescence
Sex Model R Test of F Change
113 males
1. Previous delinquent behavior .58 F(3, 109) =13.52 p < .0005
2. + Support of mother in late adol. .58 F(1, 108) = .64 p = .425
157 females
3. Previous delinquent behavior .34 F(3, 153) = 6.43 p < .0005
4. + Support of mother in late adol. .42 F(1, 152) = p <= .001

11. Conclusions
Persistent light offenses can be used to predict delinquent involvement, more heavy offenses and future delinquent involvement
Females are far less involved in delinquency, but female delinquents are similar to male delinquents
Male delinquency in the early phases of adolescence is strongly predictive of later involvement
Female delinquency in the early phases of adolescence is less predictive of later involvement. Social support variables are more important, especially Support of Mother