1. U.S. Yukon River Fall Chum and Coho Salmon Preseason Management Strategies
YRDFA Preseason Planning Meeting
May 2, 2018
Anchorage
Presentation By: Jeff Estensen
Photo by Jeff Estensen

2. 2017 Season Summary Management
Preseason projection = greater than 1 Millon fish
based on summer/fall chum relationship
All districts and subdistricts went to full regulatory subsistence fishing schedule upon transitioning to fall season
subsequent 7 days per week/24 hours per day
Commercial fishing in lower river, Subdistricts 4A, 5B and 5C, and District 6

3. 2017 Season Summary Management
Subsistence salmon fishing in the U.S. mainstem Porcupine River was placed on reduced schedule on September 4
Liberalized to 24 hours per day, 7 days per week on September 22 based on the projected achievement of the Fishing Branch IMEG
Preliminary Fishing Branch River weir fall chum escapement = 48,524 fish
IMEG (22,000 – 49,000)
Summary of 2017 Management
Subsistence salmon fishing in the U.S. mainstem Porcupine River was placed on reduced schedule on September 4
Liberalized to 24 hours per day, 7 days per week on September 22 based on the projected achievement of the Fishing Branch IMEG
Preliminary Fishing Branch River weir fall chum escapement = 48,524 fish
IMEG (22,000 – 49,000)

4. 2017 Season Summary Run Assessment
Fall chum run size = 2.3 Million fish
coho = 315,000 fish
Drainagewide fall chum escapement = 1.7 Million fish
coho = 167,000 fish
All escapement goal and treaty objectives were achieved or exceeded (including Fishing Branch River)

5. 2017 Season Summary Harvests Preliminary subsistence harvests:
fall chum  85,700
coho  7,500
Commercial fall chum and coho harvests were at record or near record levels
Photo by ADF&G Staff

6. Fall Chum Salmon Run Sizes

7. What to Expect in 2018
Photo by Jeff Estensen

8. Drainagewide Fall Chum Salmon Forecast
Forecasted run = 1.7 Million
Range (80% CI) = 1.6 Million – 1.8 Million
Average run size for an even year = 800,000
So that brings us to this year’s fall chum forecast: M fish, range of 1.6 to 1.8 M
Well above average for an even year run = 800,000 fish
Photo by ADF&G Staff

9. 2018 Fall Chum Salmon Run Expectations
Evaluate age class returns inseason
5 year olds
~ 25% of run on average
expect an above average return of 5 year olds based on year old return
4 year olds
dominate the run (~ 68% on average)
parent year (2014) escapement was 725,000 fish
return typically uncertain prior to the season
3 and 6 year old fish make up a small percentage of run
Run Expectations for 2018
5 -year olds return ~ 25% of the annual run
Above average return based on well above average year old return
4 year old return ~ 68 % of the annual run
Parent year (2014) escapement was 725,000 fish
Return typically uncertain entering the season
3 and 6 year old fish returns make up a small percentage of return

10. Photo by Christy Gleason
2018 Management
Photo by Jeff Estensen
Photo by Christy Gleason

11. Fall Season Management
Early season management based on preseason projection
Based on summer chum salmon run
Switch to inseason assessment ~ late July/early August
Passage at mainstem sonar near Pilot Station
Lower Yukon Test Fishery
Genetics
Subsistence and commercial harvest information
Adjust management inseason based on assessment
Early season management based on the preseason projection
Switch to inseason management around late July/early August as inseason projection becomes less volatile.
Passage at mainstem sonar near Pilot
Lower Test Fish numbers
Genetics
Subsistence and commercial harvest information
Adjust management with assessment
Photo by: ADF&G Staff

12. Management Strategy Subsistence Fisheries
Full regulatory schedules anticipated with 7.5” mesh
Switch to fall management commensurate with fall chum salmon migration
Potential for 7 days per week later in season
Photo by Jeff Estensen
Photo by Jeff Estensen

13. U.S. Porcupine Fall Chum Salmon Management
Management will be based on inseason run assessment:
full regulatory schedule
reduced fishing schedule
full closure
Flexibility to adjust management as inseason information becomes
available:
lower river assessment
Porcupine River sonar
Fishing Branch River weir
Photo by Jeff Estensen
With that in mind and expecting a run greater than 1M fish
Likely begin fall season in the US portion of the Porcupine River on full regulatory schedule and no anticipated subsistence salmon fishing restrictions for the season
Possibility of reduced schedule or closure if the fall chum salmon run is coming in below 1 M fish
Flexibility to adjust management inseason as information from:
Lower river assessment (sonar)
Porcupine River sonar
Fishing Branch weir
Photo by Jeff Estensen

14. Management Strategies Commercial Fisheries
Commercial surplus of 1.2 million fish available
Openings at transition in Lower
River
Commercial openings in
District 6 and Subdisticts 5B-C
Adjust fishing time as run
strength warrants
Photo by Jeff Estensen
Photo by Christy Gleason

15. Coho Salmon Management
Average run  240,000
fish.
Incidentally harvested in
fall chum salmon directed
commercial fishery.
Under coho salmon management plan the department has an option for a directed commercial fishery in early September.
Photo by Bonnie Borba
What to expect for coho management
Incidentally caught in the fall chum directed
As I mentioned the large harvests coincide with large runs
Possible to have coho directed fishing in September
Run strength assessment
Amount of harvest taken in fall chum fishery

16. Board Of Fisheries Actions
Fall Season Commercial Fishery:
After July 15, set net only area expanded offshore up to 3 miles
Summer and Fall Seasons:
District 1 boundary is now identical for subsistence and commercial:
Black River to Point Romanof, offshore up to 3 miles
Finally 2 BOF actions that will have a direct affect on the fall season commercial fisheries
After July 15, set net only area expanded offshore up to 3 miles
Summer and Fall Season:
District 1 boundary is now identical for subsistence and commercial:
Black River to Point Romanof, offshore up to 3 miles

17. Board Of Fisheries Actions
District 6 Tanana River:
Commercial season ends by date established by Emergency order instead of October 1.
District 6 Tanana River:
Commercial season ends by date established by Emergency order instead of October 1.

18. ADF&G Fall Season Team Contacts
Questions?
Photo by Christy Gleason
Photo by Christy Gleason
ADF&G Fall Season Team Contacts
Area Manager
Assistant Manager
Research Biologist
Photo submitted by fisherman