1. NAFTA’s Impact on U.S. Agriculture: A USDA Perspective*
Praveen Dixit and Steven Zahniser
Presentation to the Sixth Mexico/Canada/US Conference on Trade Liberalization Under NAFTA--Report Card on Agriculture, San Diego, California, February 17, 2000
*Based on "NAFTA: International Agriculture and Trade Reports -- Situation and Outlook Series," WRS-99-1/ This report was prepared by an ERS team. Report Coordinators: John Link and Steven Zahniser, Section Coordinators: Terry Crawford, Linda Calvin, Bill Glynn (FAS), Linwood Hoffman, David Skully, and John Wainio. Team Members: Ed Allen, Mark Ash, Chris Bolling, Mary Burfisher, Nathan Childs, Xinshen Diao, Carol Goodloe (OCE), Charles Handy, David Harvey, Mildred Haley, Steven Haley, Keith Klindworth (AMS), Ricardo Krajewski (AMS), Lorin Kusmin, Suchada Langley, Mack Leath, Gary Lucier, Steve MacDonald, Christopher McGath, Charles Plummer, Susan Pollack, Peter Riley, Robert Skinner, Gerald Schluter, Renee Schwartz (FAS), Richard Stillman, and Agapi Somwaru. Curtis Kooser (U.S. Dept. of Labor), Mary May (U.S. Dept. of Commerce), and Jay Meisenheimer (U.S. Dept. of Labor) provided data used in the employment section.
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2. Summary Findings of Background Trade Flow Paper
North American agricultural trade has continued to grow following implementation of CUSTA (1989) and NAFTA (1994)
Agricultural trade among NAFTA partners account for a larger portion of total North American agricultural trade than it did before NAFTA
Turning points in North American agricultural trade do not necessarily coincide with the initial implementation of either CUSTA or NAFTA
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3. Basic Conclusions of USDA NAFTA Study
NAFTA’s impact on U.S. agriculture:
Generally positive and subtle, though dramatic impact for certain combinations of commodity and trade partner
NAFTA is only one of many factors affecting U.S. agriculture:
Domestic policy reforms in all 3 member countries
Mexican peso crisis (late ) Unusual weather conditions
Exchange rate movements
Longrun prospects for trade growth to depend more on institutional and infrastructural advancements rather than just agricultural policy liberalization
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4. ERS

7. ERS ERS Agricultural Employment and Investment Implications of NAFTA
NAFTA has had a small though positive effect on employment in U.S. agriculture. Agriculture is a very small component of the Transitional Adjustment Assistance (TAA) Program
Capital expenditures in U.S. agriculture grew between 1993 and NAFTA has also facilitated flow of investments in agricultural production and food processing within North America
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8. ERS ERS NAFTA: Beyond the Farm Gate
Long terms gains from NAFTA will depend greatly on advancements in factors beyond the farm gate (supply chain management system)
Improvements in the transportation infrastructure (privatization of railroads in Mexico and Canada, harmonization of trucking regulations)
Advancements in the food retail distribution system (changing roles of supermarkets in Mexico)
Institutional developments such as dispute resolution, SPS inspection services, and customs data interchange
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