1. Visualization of first (Model - to – Observations/Emissions)
TFMM-Trends, Kraków, 5-8 May 2015
Visualization of first
Modelled Trends
( )
Model - to - Model
(Model - to – Observations/Emissions)
- C. Cuvelier, ex European Commission JRC
- EuroDelta Trend Modelling Teams
Based on contributions from EMEP, CHIM, MINNI, POLR
Support from Concawe

2. Tool for Trend Analysis
Objectives
The Tool
Tool for Trend Analysis
Multi – Model (model intercomparison)
Multi - Pollutant
Gases, PM, Depositions
Multi – Geo (zooming)
Europe (Land, Sea), Countries (39),
Regions (428), Cities (477), Stations
Detailed Shape files (polygons of lon-lat)
Add Observational and Emission trends

3. EuroDelta3 Trend Analysis TOOL Read-only Database Model
All pollutants
Zoom: Country, region, City, Station
Indicators (e.g. O3excD, O3somo35, PM10excD,
NO2excD, … etc)
Regression: Linear, Exp, Sen, … etc
Add Observational data
Add Emission data
Model
Model results: Example ED_MODEL#MxxByyEzz_EDT_O3_DL.nc (nx,ny,ntime)
Meteo: KZ, PBL, RAIN, T2M, U10, USTAR (H D)
Gas: APINEN, H2O2, HCHO, HNO3, ISOP, NH3, NO, NO2, O3, PAN, SO2, VOC (H,D)
PM: PM25, [ASOA, BSOA, DUST, EC, NA, NH4, NO3, OPOM, OPPM, POMS2, SO4, TPOM]-25 (D)
PM10, [ASOA, BSOA, DUST, EC, NA, NH4, NO3, OPOM, OPPM, POMS2, SO4, TPOM]-10 (D)
Dep: DNHx, DNOx, DSOx, WNHx, WNOx, WSOx (M)
Read-only Database

4. Deliverables EMEP: Y90, Y00, Y10, Y10f, Y10fe, M10B10E00, M10B10E90
CHIM: Y90, Y00, Y10, Y10e, M10B10E00, M10B10E90
MINNI: Y90, Y00, Y10, Y10e
POLR: Y10e
f = ‘f’orest Fires
e = ‘e’MEP emission inventory, otherwise GAINS
Total = 64 Gb
20 years, 5 models => 350 Gb

5. Models intercomparison
Y90 => EMEP, CHIM, MINNI
Y00 => …
Y10 => …
Y10e => CHIM, MINNI, POLR
Y10-Y90 => EMEP, CHIM, MINNI
Y10-Y00 => …
Y10 – Y10e => CHIM, MINNI
M10B10E10 – M10B10E00 => EMEP, CHIM
M10B10E10 – M10B10E90 => …
O3, NO2, PM10
O3hr8max, O3hr8Exc60
Trends

6. O3 Y10

7. O3 Y10 – Y90

8. NO2 Y10

9. NO2 Y10-Y90

10. PM10 Y10

11. PM10 Y10-Y90
PM10 Y10-Y00

12. O3hr8max Y10 – Y90

13. O3hr8Exc60 Y10 – Y90

14. Multi-Geo

15. Year Selection, Multi-SpeciesEU
Year Selection, Multi-Species

16. First Results Trend Calculations

17. EU
Trend Europe (Land), O3

18. EU
Trend FRA, O3

19. Trend O3 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land -0.151
-0.014
-0.122 60 IT
-0.282
-0.082
-0.234 70 ES
-0.243
-0.055
-0.222 75 DE
-0.159
+0.132
-0.045 55 FR
-0.390
-0.173
-0.334 UK
-0.075
+0.068
-0.053 40 PL
-0.154
-0.012
-0.096

20. Trend O3hr8max [ug/m3/year]EU
Trend O3hr8max [ug/m3/year]
EMEP
CHIM
MINNI
EMEP#Y90
ug/m3
EU-Land
-0.272
-0.106
-0.211 70 IT
-0.529
-0.350
-0.446 90 ES
-0.351
-0.148
-0.320 85 DE
-0.414
-0.085
-0.323 FR
-0.575
-0.348
-0.477 UK
-0.162
-0.013
-0.125 45 PL
-0.310
-0.097
-0.181

21. Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]EU
Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]
EMEP
CHIM
MINNI
EMEP#Y90
days
EU-Land
-1.55
-0.445
-0.867 34 IT
-3.960
-1.970
-2.80 90 ES
-1.37
-0.542
-1.288 32 DE
-2.567
-0.731
-1.453 55 FR
-3.270
-1.176
-1.909 70 UK
-0.861
-0.210
-0.348 18 PL
-1.804
-0.249
-0.704 39

22. Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land
-0.077
-0.105
-0.086
5.0 IT
-0.168
-0.287
-0.190
8.2 ES
-0.037
-0.079
-0.053
4.1 DE
-0.302
-0.423
-0.319
14.2 FR
-0.084
-0.158
-0.103
7.2 UK
-0.143
-0.216
-0.153
6.5 PL
-0.060
-0.101
7.1

23. Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land
-0.326
-0.312
-0.316
14.7 IT
-0.435
-0.397
-0.406
20.4 ES
-0.342
-0.285
-0.307
17.5 DE
-0.648
-0.649
-0.681
25.1 FR
-0.462
-0.375
-0.394
20.7 UK
-0.214
-0.164
-0.176
10.4 PL
-0.498
-0.451
-0.561
22.2

24. Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year] EU EMEP CHIM MINNI EMEP#Y90 ug/m3 EU-Land
-0.202
-0.178
-0.206
4.6 IT
-0.212
-0.211
-0.257
4.7 ES
-0.106
-0.104
-0.126
3.2 DE
-0.496
-0.452
-0.488
10.0 FR
-0.174
-0.213 UK
-0.184
-0.182
-0.164
4.0 PL
-0.545
-0.412
-0.466
12.6

25. 2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year]

26. 2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend O3 [ug/m3/year]

27. 2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year]

28. 2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend NO2 [ug/m3/year]

29. 2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year]

30. 2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend PM10 [ug/m3/year]

31. 2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year]

32. 2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year]EU
2d map Trend SO2 [ug/m3/year]

33. 2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]EU
2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]

34. 2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]EU
2d map Trend O3hr8Exc60 [days/year]

35. 1 preliminary conclusion To complete
Final Remarks
1 preliminary conclusion
3 Models seem to agree on trends
To complete
1990/2000/2010 => intermediate years
Add Observational trends (validation)
Add Emission trends
Visualization/Analysis Tool
Easy to install; Easy to use
Acting directly on Model output (MBE folder)
Fast – handle large amounts of data
PC and Linux

36. koniec