1. Synthesis of Asymmetry Studies
Workshop on IMTS
Synthesis of
Asymmetry Studies
Budapest, 29-30/05/2013
Author: Nicola Veronese
Position: Short-term expert
NOM Prénom
Fonction

2. TABLE OF CONTENT Chapter I: Introduction,
Chapter II: Trade and asymmetries during MEDSTAT programmes
Chapter III: Evaluation according to criteria
Chapter IV: Recommendations
Annex: Bilateral asymmetries during MEDSTAT III

3. Chapter I: Introduction
In the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the European Commission launched three phases of the Regional Programme of Statistics in the Mediterranean Region (MEDSTAT)
MEDSTAT I :
MEDSTAT II :
MEDSTAT III:

4. Foreign Trade Statistics were included among the priority thematic sectors of MEDSTAT programmes.
The importance of disposing of accurate and comparable statistics lead to carry out mirror asymmetry studies in order to :
Measure bilateral asymmetries;
Identify their causes;
Adopt methodological improvements for limiting them in the future

5. Chapter II: Trade and asymmetries during MEDSTAT
Historical importance of trade in the Mediterranean region
Growth of international trade thanks to:
Transport capacity
Telecommunication means
Low trade barriers
Consumer behaviour

6. Trade with the EU declared by MPCs, in 2010 (Mio Euro)

7. MPCs market integration with the EU, in 2010

8. Evolution of MPCs exports to EU, in 2000-2010 (Part I)

9. Evolution of MPCs exports to EU, in 2000-2010 (Part II)

10. Evolution of MPCs imports from EU, in 2000-2010

11. Value and share of MPCs trade with EU, 2000-2010 (Mio Euro, %)

12. Value and share of MPCs trade with EU, 2000-2010 (Mio Euro, %)

13. Main EU imports from MPCs-9, in 2010
EU imports from MPCs = million Euro, of which:

14. Main MPCs partners in EU imports, 2010
HS 27: DZ (68,5%), EG (11,7%) and SY (10,8%)
HS 85: TN (47,8%), MA (24,8%) and IL (22,1%)
HS : TN (47,0%) and MA (42,3%)
HS 84: IL (65,0%) and TN ( 17,1%)
HS 71 : IL (82,2%), LB (4,5%) and JO (2,7%)
HS 30: IL (94,7%), PS (2,1%)
HS 07: MA (49,6%), IL (25,5%) and EG (19,9%)

15. Main EU exports to MPCs-9, in 2010
EU exports to MPCs = million Euro, of which:

16. Main MPCs partners in EU exports, 2010
HS 84: EG (24,8%) and DZ (23,8%)
HS 85: TN (23,1%), MA (18,6%) and IL (18,5%)
HS 87 : DZ (24,5%) and IL (24,3%)
HS 27: MA (21,5%), TN (17,6%) and LB (16,4%)
HS 30: DZ (27,3%), IL (20,5%) and EG (16,2%)
HS 72: DZ (37,1%), EG (25,8%)
HS 39 : IL (21,7%), MA (19,1%), TN (17,3%) and EG (17,0%)
HS 71 : IL (81,4%), LB (4,9%) and JO (4,6%)

17. EU imp/exp from/to MPCs by main HS chapters, 2000-2010
The composition of the EU trade with MPCs remained almost stable during the period , with the exception of the trade in aircraft (HS 88). EU imports from: DZ, SY and EG -----> concentrated on HS 27 IL, LB and JO -----> linked with HS 71 MA, TN -----> mainly based on HS and HS 85 PS -----> recently based on HS 30, EU exports to MPCs: Concentrated on HS 84, 85, 87, 27. (See table 19 of the report)

18. Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010
Northbound asymmetries: MEDSTAT I: High in value with DZ and EG High % with JO (82%), EG (69%) and LB (59%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with DZ and EG High % with PS (298%), JO (202%), EG (89%) and LB (59%) MEDSTAT III: High in value with EG High % with PS (367%), JO (45%), and LB (-43%) Main source of asymmetry: Trade in HS 27.

19. Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010
Southbound asymmetries: MEDSTAT I: High in value and in % with EG (-35%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with EG, DZ and SY High % with EG (-59%), SY (-42%) MEDSTAT II: High in value with EG High % with PS (248%) Main source of asymmetry: Increasing role of HS 27 + HS84, 85 and 87.

20. Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 (Part I)

21. Asymmetries in EU-MPCs trade, 2000-2010 (Part II)

22. Trade among EJPAI countries, 2006-2009
Overview:
The value of trade among EJPAI countries increased considerably between 2006 and 2009 with the only exception of trade declared by Jordan with Israel and Egyptian imports from Jordan.
Market integration:
PS imp from IL = 73,6%; PS exp to IL = 87,5%
JO imp from EG = 6,1%; PS exp to JO = 5,7%;
IL exp to PS = 4,4%; EG exp to JO =3,9%

23. Asymmetries among EJPAI countries, 2006-2009
Eastbound trade:
The asymmetries increased significantly, with the exception of:
EG exp to JO and PS exp to JO.
Westbound trade:
The asymmetries generally reduced, with the exception of IL-PS trade.

24. Chapter III: Evaluation according to criteria
Relevance > Why mirror studies ?
Effectiveness > Results
Efficiency > Implementation and budget
Utility > Indirect benefit
Sustainability > Impact

25. Effectiveness Spread the importance of data quality;
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries
Effectiveness
Spread the importance of data quality;
Disseminate the methodology for comparing mirror exercises;
Verify the level of comparability between EU and MPCs data;
Verify the accuracy of the sets of MPCs data available in international databases;
Identify the main asymmetries in EU-MPCs data at total and detail level;
Obtain information on the methodology adopted by MPCs for the production of external trade data;
Provide advices for increasing the harmonization of national methodology towards international concepts;
Provide advices to MPCs for changing the system of trade, commodity or partner classifications;
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries
Provide feedbacks to EU Member States and MPCs on the causes of permanent asymmetries and on asymmetries generated by particular transactions;
Reduce the asymmetries on published data thanks to the correction of data made by the competent administrations
Avoid repetition of asymmetries
Improve the quality of external trade statistics.

26. Mirror exercises were useful:
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries
Utility
Mirror exercises were useful:
For improving the comparability and accuracy of EU-MPCs trade data;
As basis for developing further presentations on statistical data quality (ex. Seminar or asymmetries in MA-FR twinning);
As starting point for further discussions in the framework of other cooperation projects (DZ-FR Customs);
Correct errors in international datasets
Enhancing national and south-south cooperaton

27. Mirror exercises produces sustainable results, as they improved:
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries
Enhance data exchange among trade partner countries
Sustainability
Mirror exercises produces sustainable results, as they improved:
MPCs human resources skills on mirror exercises methods;
The data published, when the correction of identified errors had been done immediately;
The post mirror exercise data, when the integration of missing statistical information and the elaboration of changes in statistical methodology realized in the medium-term.

28. Chapter IV: Recommendations
In EU-MPCs trade it might be worth to proceed to an additional round of mirror studies, especially to assess EU-JO, EU-LB and EU-PS northbound trade and to check if the negative discrepancies in southbound trade persist.
EJPAI mirror exercise should continue
The role of Free Zones and QIZ might increase the discrepancies
Permanent asymmetries should be monitored
Improve Customs Procedure/Stat. Procedures kowledge

29. Management recommendations
Long-term TA produce valuable results;
Launch mirror exercise every 3 years
Centralize/harmonize the studies
Concentrate the activity in a short period
Foreseen a sufficient number of days in line with objectives
Involve EU Member States
Informatics tools might be developed

30. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION

31. Annex A EU-DZ Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 27, acceptable
Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 87 to be monitored
Note: EU-MPCs in Euro

32. EU-EG
Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 27, to be monitored
Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 8411 (Gas turbines) to be monitored
EG to assess the coverage

33. EU-IL
Northbound/Southbound: Discrepancies in HS 71, to be monitored
IL to limit the use of « Areas N.E.S. » in the future if possible

34. EU-JO
Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8411 (Turbojets), to be monitored
Free zones in export of HS 28 (Inorganic chemicals)
Southbound: Discrepancy in HS 8802 (Powered aircraft)

35. EU-LB
Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8710 (Tanks), to be monitored
Southbound: HS 8802, 8411 and 8703 to be monitored.

36. EU-MA
Northbound: Discrepancies in HS 8541 (Semiconductors), to be monitored
Southbound: Discrepancies HS 2710 to be monitored.

37. EU-TN
Northbound: Discrepancy in HS 89 and 64.
Southbound: Discrepancies HS 8542, 2710 to be monitored.

38. EG-IL
Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS (Natural gas).
Westbound: Discrepancies in various chapters. Role of Free Zones to check.

39. EG-JO
Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS (Gold in unwrought form).
Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 31, to be monitored

40. IL-JO
Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 7108 (Gold) and HS 7112.
Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 61 and HS 28.
IL to change valuation of goods after processing

41. EG-PS
Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 04, 07 and 2716.
Westbound: Discrepancies in HS 64 and HS 48.

42. PS-JO
Eastbound: Discrepancy in HS 6802 (Building stones).

43. IL-PS
Eastbound/Westbound: The exercise was done according to a tentative method of using data by activity sector.
IL and PS need to cooperate on IMTS.