1. IMPROVING REGIONAL FOOD TRADE
David Adama,
Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa

2. 1 2 3 4 5 Outline The Case for Regional Food Trade and Markets in SSA
Key Drivers and Constraints
Challenges of intra-African trade 4 5
The Value of the
African Continental Free Trade Area
Enablers for changing the tide

3. THE CONTEXT OF REGIONAL FOOD MARKETS IN SSA
In 2050, 1 in 4 people on the planet will be African
Urbanisation and secondary town growths; African Urbanisation growing by +4% PA – By 2021 – (625 million)
Increasing and more diversified food demand
Stagnating productivity
Climate dependent and constrained
Investment growing but not enough and risks (perceived and real) still very high
Growing food import bill, (US$35 billion/Yr -2014)
Export of raw commodities to other countries
Intra-African trade and regional integration is a sure vehicle to speed up Africa’s economic transformation.

4. URBANIZATION IS DRIVING INCREASED DEMAND FOR FOOD PRODUCTS THAT ARE NOT MOSTLY SUPPLIED BY AFRICAN PRODUCERS
Increasing urbanization across Africa
Shifting consumption preferences to “premium” rice

6. Is REGIONAL FOOD TRADE really important ?
Improves prospects of investments in value addition and agro-processing with access to wider markets and more stable supply chains
Create additional jobs and increase farmers’ access to markets, linking them with consumers in rapidly growing urban areas and beyond national boundaries;
Improved adoption of input technology thereby increasing productivity
Promotes specialization and efficiency, boosting agriculture productivity and enabling manufacturers and traders gain efficiencies in the use of resources, including labor and technology.
Food trade between surplus and deficit areas also allows markets to mitigate food shortages, increasing resilience and food security at a regional level.

7. Continent-wide: More than 80 % of Africa’s exports are destined for outside markets, with EU and the USA accounting for more than 50 % of this total
Despite the potential and vast opportunities, intra-regional trade in SSA remains consistently low compared with inter-continental trade.
Varied : Africa 11.9 % in Intra- regional trade
E.G. Only 5% of Sub Saharan Africa’s (SSA) imports of cereals come from other SSA countries.

8. what are the challenges of regional food trade in Africa
Policy unpredictability
Political Economy of Food is complicated;
Seasonal surplus and Annual deficits
High price fluctuations
Infrastructure deficit and logistics – can be cheaper to import into Kenya from Mexico than from Zambia;
…… But Demand is growing ..creates new opportunities
Low productivity; climate change; Disaggregated supply; poor adoption of input technologies
Technology and Innovation
National level Food Security considerations are one of the main issues driving government interventions that dis-incentivise investment; (NTBs)

9. Two Key Issues to focus on
There are several but …Based on feedback and learning from our programme, the following affect the whole market system:
Coordination of players and sectors- investment in one bit of the value chain does not work without other bits; creating institutional configuration for productive public-private partnership
Unpredictability policy environment and government interventions – Non-Tariff Barriers, Non-Tariff Measures, Companies can work with any policy as long as they know these policies.

10. What is NTBs
Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) are restrictions that result from prohibitions, conditions, or specific market requirements that make importation or exportation of products difficult and/or costly.
In many cases, NTBs are unjustified and not evidence based purported to deal with food security concerns or advantage for local markets.
improper application of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) such as sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and other technical barriers to Trade (TBT)
NTBs arise from different measures taken by governments and authorities in the form of government regulations, policies, and restrictions or specific requirements, on private sector business practices, or prohibitions in a bid to protect the domestic industries from foreign “competition”.

11. Do we agree on the importance of regional food trade?
Do we agree on the importance of improving value chain coordination and predictability of policy that effects cross border food trade?
what instruments have we tried – as a sector – to put in place to address those issues?
what lessons can we learn and what should we do differently?
To the Session…..

12. Value of AfCFTA
The AfCFTA will have a combined GDP of about $2.3 trillion and a population of more than 1.2 billion people, with more than half comprising the youth.
It will tackle the fragmentation of African economies through elimination of tariffs and removal of non-tariff barriers
The ratification and implementation of the Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) and the tripartite Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will be crucial to building a single continental market for goods and services, along with free movement of labor and capital
Increasing the volumes of intra-African trade in agricultural products and the elimination of Non- Tariff Barriers

13. Boost industrialization and enhance competitiveness, at country and industry levels, through higher investments in connectivity and infrastructure, both physical and digital
Greater harmonization in standards and procedures strengthening food safety
Create additional jobs and increase farmers’ access to markets, linking them with consumers in rapidly growing urban areas and beyond national boundaries.
Regional market development will promotes specialisation and efficiency, boosting agriculture productivity and taking advantage of the complementarity of agro-ecological zones.

14. AfCFTA modalities on goods: implications for Africa/East Africa
Largest increases (i.e. over 30%) in intra-African exports for Eastern African countries are found in the following sectors:
Ethiopia
Kenya
Madagascar
Rwanda
Tanzania
Uganda
Rest of Eastern Africa
Agriculture and foods
Oilseeds
Vegetable oils
Rice
Milk and dairy
Crops
Vegetables, fruit, nuts
Red meat
Sugar
White meat
Other food products
Beverages and Tobacco
Energy and mining
Mining
Energy
Industry
Textile
Fishery
Wearing apparel
Leather
Wood and paper
Metals
Chemicals
Vehicle and transport equipment
Electronic
Machinery

15. What will be the enablers for improving intra-African trade?
Integrated National development plans and policies
Well functioning and resilient infrastructure
Strong capacities and skills at all levels
Digitalization of economies

16. Conclusion
Implementing the AfCFTA will catalyze Africa’s industrial transformation
Improved productive potential for agriculture in Africa, value-addition and manufacturing
Boost trade and investment between countries and regional economic communities
Generate prosperity for citizens achieving agenda 2030 and agenda 2063
Increase market volume and value for producers and manufacturers alike