1. The Emerging China
Red Menace OR

2. Friendly Global Capitalist Trading Partner?

3. What the experts think

4. Gou Jian of Yue & Fu Chai of Wu

5. Chinese Provinces Today

6. Background – 300 years of foreign domination
Opium Wars
Boxer Rebellion 1900
Japanese invasion 1937
Communist Victory 1949
Tibet invasion 1950
“Great Leap Forward” 1959
Cultural Revolution 1966

7. Opening to the West 1972
Deng Xiaoping begins economic reforms in 1978

8. The Emerging Threat? The economic threat
China holds a large part of U.S. public & private debt (1.4-2 trillion dollars)
Our inter-reliance on trade with each other
Foreign ownership within the United States
The cultural distortion of America

9. Chinese Share of Global GDP
China is the world’s largest producer of coal
China is the 2nd largest consumer of energy
Chinese share of global GDP estimated to pass the US in 2039

10. Chinese Economic Growth
China has grown 10% per year for 30 years

11. Growing US/Chinese Trade
China’s exports to the US have soared from $39 billion to $197 billion in the last 20 years

12. Chinese Share of the US Economy
China currently holds about $500 billion in US treasury bills
Japan still holds twice that many
Trade imbalance can be looked at two ways

13. Chinese Currency Value
Chinese currency is currently Yuan to the dollar
Most experts believe that is approximately 30% undervalued/i.e. $2000 on a car
Impact on trade? Wages?
A limited float announced 2012

14. Chinese Copyright Violations

15. China and the WTO MFN

16. China: Rich or Poor?
China has grown at 10% per year growth rate for 30 years
China has moved 400 million people out of poverty (<$1 per day)
China has quadrupled the average income

17. China: Rich or Poor?
More than 1 billion Chinese still below the world poverty line
150 million live on less than $1 per day
Unemployment above ten per cent and growing

18. Inequality and Disparity
One of the most economically unequal societies in the world
The growing urban-rural gap
The “two-class” system
The call for reform – protests and unrest have become commonplace

19. China: Rich or Poor?

20. China and Global Warming
Failure to initially join the Kyoto Protocol
China passed the U.S. in December of 2007 as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases
China is the world’s second largest oil consumer with crude oil imports increasing at 18% per year. China’s demand is driving up global crude prices

21. Product Safety
March 2007 – Warnings and recalls on Chinese produced pet food
May 2007 – Chinese toothpaste (some counterfeit) found to contain poisonous chemicals
June 2007 – Chinese toys discovered to contain high levels of lead paint
July 2007 – Chinese tires found to have major defect
20% of all Chinese products produced for domestic consumption were declared substandard

22. Chinese Military Expansion
Chinese interventions in Vietnam (1979) & the Spratley/Paracel Islands
Influence with North Korea
Military spending increases have kept pace with GDP growth
US 600 B v. China 100 B

23. Quemoy and Matsu
Chinese declaration to intervene if Taiwan declares independence
Truman & the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty -
“The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war.”

24. Spratley Islands
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
ADIZ

25. Chinese Cyber Attacks
PLA unit 61398
Operation “Shady Rat”

26. Chinese Democracy Tienanmen Square 1989

27. Chinese Democracy Tienanmen Square 1989
May 1989, over a million protesters gather over what started as a protest on dorm food
June 3rd 1989, hundreds of students gunned down or arrested

28. Chinese Democracy Topics Range Results
World Democracy overall rank
Political Rights
Civil Liberties
Press Freedom
Corruption

29. Chinese Development v. Chinese Democracy
In 2003, 3 million people participated in 58,000 protests
The number increased to 74,000 in 2004
In 2016, there was a record number of protests, 2774 incidents
Can you have development without democracy?

30. The Summer Olympics Opportunity for influence missed?
Chinese oil purchases in Sudan
Chinese spending over 40 billion on Olympic infrastructure
Pollution during the Olympics

31. Discussion
Is the United States entering a pact of mutually assured destruction with China by linking the two economies so closely?
Is China a threat militarily?
How could the United States counter any potential military threat posed by China?

32. The Discussion Strikes Back…
So far, China has been successful in suppressing the discontent from much of its rural population. Will China be able to continue this successfully in the future?
Can a nation liberalize economically without liberalizing politically?