1. NS4540 Winter Term 2019 Colombia Outlook
Oxresearch, Colombia: Economic Recovery likely in 2018, November 2017

2. Overview
Iván Duque of the centre-right Centro Democrático (CD) took office in August 2018 for a four-year term.
His government will follow orthodox economic policies and promote market-friendly reforms, bolstering confidence.
Mr Duque is facing growing difficulties in passing his policy agenda
His party lacks a majority, and
Owing to his diminished political capital.
Student protests and the approval of an unpopular tax bill have hindered his popularity.

3. Outlook
The demobilization of the FARC guerrillas has resulted in a power vacuum in its former territory
Led to increased infighting among other illegal groups.
A deal with the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), a smaller guerrilla outfit, has been ruled out.
Growth 3.1% in 2019 due to
Higher oil prices
Increased infrastructure investment, and
Firmer private consumption growth.

4. Forecast

5. Risks