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NS4540 Winter Term 2019 Colombia Outlook
Oxresearch, Colombia: Economic Recovery likely in 2018, November 2017
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Overview Iván Duque of the centre-right Centro Democrático (CD) took office in August 2018 for a four-year term. His government will follow orthodox economic policies and promote market-friendly reforms, bolstering confidence. Mr Duque is facing growing difficulties in passing his policy agenda His party lacks a majority, and Owing to his diminished political capital. Student protests and the approval of an unpopular tax bill have hindered his popularity.
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Outlook The demobilization of the FARC guerrillas has resulted in a power vacuum in its former territory Led to increased infighting among other illegal groups. A deal with the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN), a smaller guerrilla outfit, has been ruled out. Growth 3.1% in 2019 due to Higher oil prices Increased infrastructure investment, and Firmer private consumption growth.
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Forecast
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Risks
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