1. Anna-Stiina Heiskanen Luc Feyen
Joint Research Centre Institute for Environment and Sustainability Activities on the Climate Change and Water
Anna-Stiina Heiskanen
Luc Feyen

3. European Agrochemicals Geospatial Loss Estimator
European Agrochemicals Geospatial Loss Estimator – a modeling tool for assessing the fate of nutrients and pesticides of agricultural origin at European scale.
The bio-physical model EPIC was linked to readily available data at European level to estimate the losses of nutrient as affected by farming practices and other human induced forcing such as climate change.
The tool is used to estimate the impact of various Global Climate Models predictions on crop water and nutrient requirements. In addition the model is used to derive pesticide risk indicators.
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6 SUMMARY
A multipurpose geospatial model, EAGLE, was developed to asses the fate of agrochemical at continental scale using readily available data. The model EPIC was linked to a European wide geodatabase and its use was illustrated by assessing the impacts of potential climate change on crop water and nutrient requirements. In order to consider the variability between the various GCMs, EAGLE was run for 18 different scenarios.
It was predicted overall that northern Europe will be the big beneficiary of the potential climate change. A second application illustrated how the EAGLE could be used to calculate predicted environmental concentration in various compartment and how these can be then converted to risk points and then aggregated in order to predict an overall risk linked to pesticide application.
European Agrochemicals Geospatial Loss Estimator:
Model Development and Applications
By Fayçal Bouraoui, Alberto Aloe
2007 EUR EN
ISBN
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
EUR EN, ISBN
Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities

4. JRC IES activities
Development of integrated models for assessing CC impacts on aquatic ecosystems, specifically:
Structural/ functional changes in aquatic ecosystems (e.g. impact of temperature/ nutrients on coastal lagoon ecosystems)
Aquaculture (e.g. CC impacts on aquaculture in coastal lagoons)
Dynamics of contaminants
Land based pollution on marine ecosystems (scenario analysis combined with EU watershed model);
CC impact on aquatic biodiversity and ecological status
CC sensitivity of the ecological variables used in surface water quality assessment according to WFD;
CC impacts on lake characteristics (scenario analysis) (e.g. based on further development of Climate Change DSS developed in CLIME-project);
Invasive Alien species – How is CC impacting invations? Impact of IAS on aquatic food webs and role in WFD classifications.

5. JRC IES activities (2008-9)
CC impacts mitigation opportunities in agriculture: an integrated analysis of the impact of growing energy crops (scenario analysis) on Rural Development indicators (e.g. “nutrients balances”, “greenhouse gases emission from agriculture” and “High Nature Value Farmland”).
Development of modelling tools and databases for integrated impact assessments of environmental policy implementation using retrospective and prospective scenarios (bio-fuels, climate change) for their impacts on European seas (“FATE system);

6. Physical impact assessment Socio-economic impact assessment
Assessment of the physical and socio-economic impacts
of changes in the hydrological cycle caused by global warming
 flood hazard
 physical impact
high-resolution
climate information
European data on soils, land cover, river basins, ...
 drought hazard
exposure
vulnerability
Hydrological model
 river flow
& water
availability
 risk
Member States
data on river dimensions, discharges, ...
Physical impact assessment
Socio-economic impact assessment
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