1. What’s a Theory of Change and why does it matter?
Carol Lewis, Senior Development Officer and Ali Bodley, Senior Development Officer, Community First Yorkshire

2. Are You MAD? Are you making a difference?
How do you know you are making a difference?
Did you plan how?
Are the differences you make intended or unintended consequences?
Can you answer the question…………
Are you making a difference?
How do you know you are making a difference?
Have you planned how you will make that change?
Are the differences you make intended or unintended consequences?
The aim of this workshop is to provide an overview of TOC and how it can assist your organisation.
TOC is a tool to help you describe how you make a difference and demonstrate and evidence the difference being made. We are looking at the changes you want to happen, that long term impact and measurement.
NEXT SLIDE

3. Why is MAD important? How does TOC help?
External
Funders and Commissioners
Tell your story
Credibility – communicate how good you are
Demonstrate Value for Money
Internal
Organisational focus
Motivator - Inspire
Resource planning
Identify what works or doesn’t work
Learn and improve
Being able to show you are making a difference, the impact of your project or organisation is important both externally and internally.
Summarising your work through TOC modelling can quickly communicate your aims. – It helps tell your story to stakeholders, commissioners, funders
Being able to measure and evidence your impact and the differences you are making is a powerful tool and can be the basis marketing and communication. You need to think creatively about how you present your impacts.
Internally TOC provides a clear focus, the process of involving people can both motivate and inspire and get buy in from colleagues, teams, volunteers.
It enables you to plan what resources you might need, or be more effective with the ones you have
Having the TOC framework provides a reference to internally check and challenge what you are doing, learn and improve.
Before we go into more detail lets take a look at the jargon.

4. A Language of its own? Output Outcome Impact Monitoring Evaluation
INPUT FROM ATTENDEES
Spend a couple of minutes in two’s or three’s and come up with a definition of the terms.
Sheet of paper on each table with a selection of terms to work on. Feedback.
Output = data i.e. numbers attending on volunteer management
Outcome = the difference i.e. 20 people attend training on volunteer management and have skills to provide a better experience, post training 15 people when surveyed had implemented ideas,
Impact = the long term change that result i.e. follow up work 3 months later with their volunteers indicates their experience had improved and as a result more volunteers had been recruited, better experience to sell /word of mouth through existing
Monitoring or Measuring how you are doing – quantitive and qualitative recording of information. Collecting data to be able to evidence your outputs and outcomes to show the changes e.g. registers, surveys, photographs, video diary, artwork, case study
Evaluation – What are the success stories? What have you learnt? What would you do differently? How would you improve?
Lets pick up on the outcomes and outputs. Important to be able to recognise the distinction between the two.
NEXT SLIDE

5. Is it an outcome or an output?
Quiz
Is it an outcome or an output?
5 statements will appear and you just need to say are they an output or an outcome
NEXT SLIDE

6. Young people are better equipped to seek employment.
20 people in the town sign up to volunteer to dog walk for elderly dog owners.
OUTPUT
The volunteer dog walkers say they improved their fitness, elderly people say they feel less isolated and are able to keep their pets.
OUTCOME
Mary’s mother said, “Her confidence has improved dramatically since she began music lessons.”
In the last 6 months 100 young people have attended training on how to write their CV.
Young people are better equipped to seek employment.
Address whole group show of hands for each one….
Lets start to look at TOC and you will start to see where the things we have talked about fit in
NEXT SLIDE

7. What is the Theory of Change? (TOC)
A tool to:
Describe what the difference or change you want to make
Method which illustrates how and why a desired change is expected to happen
Starts at the desired long term outcome and works backwards.
TOC is a tool to help you describe what you are trying to address - the long term difference you are looking to make.
It is a process which can be used at a range of levels at organisational, programme and project. it can be used in large, small, complex or simple organisations.
It can be developed at the start of piece of work to help you with your planning or to describe and articulate an existing piece of work so you can evaluate the impact it has made.
NEXT SLIDE
Image credit Centre for Theory for Change

8. Backwards Mapping and Connecting Outcomes
What is the Theory of Change? (TOC)
Focus on the change you want to make - impact - longer term
Look at how you can do that - activities, interventions, actions
How do these incrementally lead to the impact – outcomes – immediate/medium term?
What will be your indicators/measures? - evidence
Are you making any assumptions along the way?
Map the process using an outcomes framework
The process to get your TOC, outcomes framework down on paper to describe what you are doing starts with….
Focussing on the long term desired change and the oputcomes which will incrementally lead to the big change in other words the impact.
In doing so you give consideration to the the actions and actvities or interventions needed and how you will measure and monitor success and progress.
Dependant on the complexity of what is being mapped you may need to make a number of assumptions and these need to be stated for clarity.
In summary the elements of a TOC Outcomes Framework are…..
NEXT SLIDE
Backwards Mapping and Connecting Outcomes
Image credit: Centre for Theory for Change

9. Mission (Overarching)
Elements of Theory of Change? (TOC)
What are we looking to achieve?
What is the change we want to see?
Vision (Impact)
What will we do to realise our vision?
How will we achieve change?
Mission (Overarching)
What will be our actions?
What will be our outputs? and outcome?
Activities
How will we know we have been successful?
What evidence and data will we collect?
Indicators
Are there any assumptions being made?
Assumptions
Key question to ask when looking at developing an outcomes framework
NEXT SLIDE
Image credit Centre for Theory for Change

10. Elements of Theory of Change? (TOC)
So What?
Example:
The Difference we want to make is - People in xyz rural community have access to services and feel less isolated – THE VISION
We will do this by ; Community led projects and actvities which are identified by consultation and engagement – THE MISSION
Outcomes which might contribute:
People feel engaged in designing and developing services – actions around consultation, surveys, focus groups
More People feel they know what is happening in the community – actions monthly newsletter, websites, social media
There are hubs in the community which support peoples needs – lets follow this one through……
Actions:
Community Café - so what? How does that contribute to the outcome. Place to socialise and meet people as customer, volunteer
Establish café and then invite organisations to e.g CAB once a month - So What?
Provide a post office in the local village hall, or pub - so what?
Paint the sign on the way into the village – so what? Does it contribute, not really better environment create sense of pride
NEXT SLIDE

11. Planning Triangle Logic Model Outcome Chain Written Narrative
How do we represent TOC?
Planning Triangle
Logic Model
Outcome Chain
Written Narrative
There are four different ways to get your TOC framework down on paper, which approach you choose depends on a number of factors.
3 are diagram based and then we have the narrative.
Size and complexity of what you are mapping
The purpose for which you are developing your framework
The stage of your organisation, programme or individual project.
We going to look at each type very briefly, starting with the simplest, the Planning Triangle
NEXT SLIDE

12. Planning Triangle Impact - the change we want to make
Outcomes - changes along the way
Clear and succinct communication
Simple and logical
Good for single areas of project work
Activities - Outputs
Image credit NCVO Know How

13. Logic Model Logic model has bit more detail
It includes inputs – the resources that go into a project or programme such as staff, budget, partnerships with other organisations
Enablers are identified – these can be internal or external and are factors which are key to success
A logic model should describe the key aspects that make a project work, from inputs through to the final goal. It should be clear so that someone else can see what you have done and replicate it.
Use it to provide a template for evaluation: by identifying how you will measure the each outcome , data collection, reporting etc,
Image credit NPT Practical Guide

14. Outcome Chain
More detailed and complex showing all the outcomes that lead towards making a difference and seeing change.
The purists and those that work and are immersed in the world of the TOC would look to develop outcomes framework in this way to clearly demonstrate the level of detail and articulate outcomes, assumptions and how the vision will be achieved.
The outcomes chain focuses on mapping the sequence in which outcomes are intended to occur; by doing so, it allows you to identify what is critical to success.
Image credit NPC Practical Guide

15. Narrative
Whichever approach you choose, it is always a good idea to describe the theory of change in written form as well.
You may also find that writing a narrative challenges what you have included in the diagram and helps to identify elements that are missing.
An accompanying narrative provides more detail on the aspects of a theory of change that are central to achieving your intermediate outcomes and final goal(s).
Theory of change diagrams can be light on detail, so you should think about other key elements that are important for your theory of change to work. These elements may already be included in the diagram, but this is an opportunity to add detail.
Image credit Nick Scot

16. Think about……
Meaningful - to staff, trustees, volunteers, stakeholders
Clarity - comprehensible and easily understood, makes clear what you do?
Do-able - Have you the resources? Will your actvities contribute to outcomes and impact?
Plausible - Is it realistic? Something you could really do (not just a wish we could)?
Credible - based on experience, insight, evidence = believable
Finally, some things to be mindful of, make sure you framework…….
Meaningful: Does it describe the project or organisation accurately in ways that staff, trustees, volunteers and stakeholders agree with?
• Well-defined: Is a clear audience, client or user group articulated? Is it clear what you do?
• Comprehensible: Does it enable you to give someone the ‘two-minute story’ of the service? Would someone who knows nothing about your organisation or project be able to understand it? Could it be sued and replicated by others?
• Do-able: Are the services and activities likely to contribute to the desired outcomes and impact? The so what question.
• Plausible: Is it realistic? Does it take into account your organisation’s capacity? It should be something that the programme, project or organisation could really do, not just wish it could.
• Credible: Are people outside your organisation likely to believe it? Is it evidenced based, have you measures and indicators in place? Have you collated evidence and reports which demonstrate you are makn a difference?
NEXT SLIDE

17. Questions ? Want to know more……..
Want to know more……..
That was our whistle stop tour of TOC.
There are some references on this slide, the plan is we will you out the presentation.
and we are open to questions.