1. Production and Consumption of Protein, Fats, and Carbs in the US: Role of the Livestock Sector
Presented by Farzad Taheripour
Based on joint research with Don Scott and Wallace E. Tyner
Department of Agricultural Economics
Purdue University
Sustainability & Land Use Change Workshop
September , 2018
Crowne Plaza St. Louis Airport

2. Technological progress in US agriculture
Jorgenson et al. (2005) have shown that 80% of the observed growth in the US agricultural production during the time period of was due to improvements in productivity.
Fuglie et al. (2007): “total agricultural production in 2004 was 2.66 times higher than in Over the same period, aggregate input use in agriculture actually decreased slightly.”
In a comprehensive work, Ball et al. (2016) calculated that US agricultural productivity has increased 1.47% per year during the period , while areas of pasture and cropland have declined in this time period.

3. A new framework to measure productivity of US agriculture
Traditionally, mass units or monetary values were use to evaluate production and consumption of agricultural products,
Following Cassidy et al. (2013) a new framework is developed to measure production of crop and livestock sectors in calories and nutrient content.
Cassidy et al. covered 41 main crops, but missed many major feed crops,
We covered 92 crops including many feed crops: Silages, fodders, feed grasses,
Cassidy et al. provided data for 2000, we covered period of ,
Cassidy et al. only covered crop products, we include animal-based food too,
We determined nutrient content of crop and livestock products and their uses.
We used reliable sources: FAO, USDA, and US Census data sets.

4. Evolution in US Agriculture: Production of calories in 1961-2014 measured in Pcal (10^12 kcal)
Annual growth rates of:
Population, l%
Crop production, 1.7%
Animal-based products, 1.4%.

5. Evolution in US Agriculture: Yield improvement in crop production
Largely occurred due to yield improvement in corn and soybeans and also switching to these two crops

6. Evolution in US Agriculture: Switching to corn and soybean
Shares of corn and soybeans have increased while total area of cropland and harvested area remained flat

7. Evolution in US Agriculture: Production of crop calories in 1961-2014 measured in Pcal
Annual growth rates of:
Population, l%
Total calories 1.7%
Protein production, 1.4%
Fat, 1.5%.
Carb, 1.8%

8. Food consumption by nutrients in 1961-2014 measured in Pcal
Annual growth rates of:
Population, l%
Total calories 1.4%
Protein, 1.4%
Fat, 1.5%.
Carb, 1.3%

9. Mix of crop and animal based food items in food consumption

10. Supply of crop by nutrients and their demands for food in Pcal

11. Evolution in US Agriculture: Production of animal based calories in 1961-2014 measured in Pcal
Annual growth rates of:
Population, l%
Total calories 1.4%
Protein production, 1.5%
Fat, 1.4%.
Carb, 0.9%

12. Supply of animal based food items by nutrients and their demands in Pcal

13. Evolution in US Agriculture: Uses of crop calories in Pcal

14. Evolution in US Agriculture: Production of animal-based food items

15. Evolution in US Agriculture: Productivity gain in livestock
This table suggests three main trends in US livestock:
Productivity gains,
Land intensification,
Substitution between feed and land,
Models used to estimate biofuels ILUC emissions miss these important facts,
GTAP-BIO is an exception, we already took care of the first two,
We will now take care of the third.

16. Main Conclusions
Productivity of US agricultural has increased largely, ag-land declined,
Major transformation in the livestock sector: Both in terms of means of production and consumption patterns,
Food consumption in US has increased faster than the growth rate in population: 1.4% per year for food versus 1% for population, while exports and industrial uses also increased rapidly,
Livestock industry provides around 65%-70% of proteins consumed in US.
Switching to corn and soybean made it possible to produce more calories per unit of land.
Increase in biofuels production has been enabled by the productivity growth and livestock sector transformations described here,
Major substitution occurred between feed and land in livestock industry,
With substitution between feed and land an increases in soybean biodiesel may create more demand for cropland. But, that drops the demand for pasture land which cuts deforestation.

17. Questions and Comments
Thanks
Questions and Comments

18. Literature review: Providing food for the growing population: Role of livestock
Low efficiency conversion in livestock: Shepon, A,. et al. (2016) “Energy and protein feed-to-food conversion efficiencies in the US and potential food security gains from dietary changes,” Environ. Res. Lett

19. Evolution in US Agriculture: US cropland and pasture land)
Mix of harvested area
Cropland and pasture land in MH