1. Chapter 3 Population Describe global population distribution
Examine causes and consequences of population change
To understand the Malthusian argument
To describe demographic and economic characteristics of a population
To understand the Demographic Transition
Understanding economic migration

2. Population Explodes after the Industrial Revolution
World population growth throughout history. For most of human existence, population levels were low and growth rates were zero. Only with the Industrial Revolution that created the modern age did growth rates begin to rise, leading to an exponential increase in the numbers of people.

3. The current rapid growth rate of the world population is a recent phenomenon.
It took from the emergence of humankind until 1850 for the world population to reach 1 billion.
The second billion was added in 80 years (1850–1930),
the third billion was added in 30 years (1931–1960),
the fourth in 16 years (1960–1976),
the fifth in only 11 years (1977–1987),
and the sixth in 12 years (1987–1999).

4. Population Density
FIGURE 3.2

5. In 2010, there were approximately 6.9 billion people in the world.
The diverse populations that inhabit the world are very unevenly distributed geographically.

6. Cartogram of Global Population
FIGURE 3.3

7. FIGURE 3.4

8. Population Growth over Time and Space
World population growth is slowing
Still adding ca. 80 million per year
Most in developing countries
Some countries are losing population (Russia, E. Europe, coming in Japan)
Forces affecting population change
∆P = BR – DR + I – O or
∆P = NGR +NMR

9. Malthusian Theory
Assumed that human populations would continue to grow geometrically
And assumed that food production would grow arithmetically, due to diminishing marginal returns (or less than arithmetically)
arithmetic
Output if there are diminishing returns
Output
Inputs

10. FIGURE 3.6

11. FIGURE 3.8

12. Malthus’ Expectations & Reality
Failed to see impact of Industrial Revolution on Food production
Failed to see the opening of new lands
(especially in the new world)
Failed to anticipate falling fertility rates
Time scale on this diagram is not realistic

13. Neo-Malthusians: The Club of Rome and The Limits to Growth

15. Demographic Transition Theory
Based on Western European & North American History

16. Stages in Demographic Transition Theory
Stage 1: Preindustrial Society – high and unstable birth & death rates, population growth rate slow, importance of children, low life expectancy
Stage 2: Early Industrial Society - high birth rates, falling death rate, high population growth
Stage 3: Late Industrial Society – low death rate, falling birth rate, high population growth
Stage 4: Post Industrial Society – low birth and death rates, low population growth

17. FIGURE 3.13

18. Geography of Birth Rates Strongly Correlated with level of economic development
FIGURE 3.15

19. Percent of population under age 18
FIGURE 3.16

20. Geography of Death Rates Evidence of Demographic Transition?
FIGURE 3.17
Compare scale with map of birth rates

21. Shifting Causes of Death
Stage 1 – Poor Health Care
Stage 2 – Lower infant mortality rates with better diet and public health measures
(Figure 3.19)
Stage 3 – similar to Stage 2
Stage 4 – Few deaths from infectious diseases, more from social malaise (Figures 3.22 and 3.23). Some countries below ZPG

22. Population Growth and Income
FIGURE 3.24

23. The Slowing of Population Growth
FIGURE 3.26

24. Issues similar to
The Limits to Growth

25. Future Population Levels
Fertility levels
remain as they
are now
Fertility levels
decline

26. Contrasts between Malthus and the Demographic Transition
Fertility is socially constructed, not taken for granted
Population does not grow uncontrollably, but rather stabilizes at a slow growth rate as birth and death rates fall
However, absolute population growth is still large (ca. 80 million per annum) due to the large base (current 6+ billion)
Total future population depends on fertility rate trends in less developed regions (Figure 3.29)

27. Criticisms of Demographic Transition Theory
Based on Western societies (Europe, North America, Japan)
Not inevitable that there will be a fall in fertility rates in less developed countries
Even with dramatically lowered fertility rates
We cannot predict the length of time it will take these countries to move from Stages 2 and 3 to Stage 4 (if they do)

28. Population Structure
Age structure of population – an indicator of state of development
Relationship between age structure and demands for public services (education, health care…..)
Population pyramids as indicators of age and gender structure of populations – typically constructed around 5 year age cohorts

29. Rate of Natural Increase
FIGURE 3.25

31. Cape Verde – high birth rates, low death rates, high natural increase

32. Chile – Declining Death Rate, declining rate of natural increase

33. Denmark – low birth and death rates, low rate of natural increase

34. Summary
This chapter provides an overview of population trends over the long-run
The Industrial Revolution – in different places at different points in history – has had powerful impacts on population levels
Migration and natural increase vary in their regional importance over time
The Malthusian vision of population growth has been largely replaced by demographic transition models
Population movements are affected by differences in income levels, but also by environment and politics
The gravity model can be used to model some population movements, and spatial interaction for many phenomena