1. Sectarianism Middle East Cold War

2. Sectarianizing the Middle East
1979 Islamic Revolution shifts the paradigm away from the Arab Cold War, to the Middle East Cold War
Religious identity becomes the principle driver of conflict
Alliances based on common enemies and common interests
Religion as a political tool

3. sUNNI
SHI’ITE
Followers of Ali
10-13% of Muslims
11-14% in the Middle East-North Africa region
Around 70% of Shias live in Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq.
Major Sects: Imami, Ismaili, Zaydi
Sunnah, example of the Prophet
Around 85% of Muslims
Divided among 4 major and 1 minor schools of legal thought.
Hanafi, Shafii, Malaki, Hanbali,
Zahiri

4. So What’s The Problem? Can’t We All Just Get Along?

5. NO!!!!

6. Why Not?

7. Disagreement over the right of succession to the Prophet

8. Sunni Belief Muhammad died without appointing a successor
companions gathered and elected Abu Bakr, Muhammad's father-in-law, as the first Caliph.
Caliph should be democratically chosen
After the Rashidun (first four Caliphs) hereditary dynastic rule practiced

9. Shi’ite Belief on Succession
God chose Ali to be Muhammad's successor
Ali was Muhammad's cousin and closest living male relative as well as his son-in-law,
married to Muhammad's daughter Fatimah
The Farewell Pilgrimage
Shia believe Mohammed appointed Ali caliph

10. Caliphate

11. Sunni/ Shi’ite

13. Cold War Blocs Revolutionary Bloc Led by Iran (Russian Support)
Status Quo Bloc
Led by Saudi Arabia
(US Support)

14. Salafi anti al Assad groups Yemen ousted Government Bahrain Government
Iran Friends
Saudi Friends
Salafi anti al Assad groups
Yemen ousted Government
Bahrain Government
Iraqi Sunni
Jordan
Gulf States
Egypt
Shia in Afghanistan and Pakistan
Bashar al Assad
Bahrain Shia
Shia militias Iraq
Shia clerics Iraq
Iraqi government
Hezbollah
Houthi Shia
Iraqi Kurds
Qatar?

15. United States
US – Saudi relations formalized in 1933 based originally on oil interests and later mutual opposition to communism then post revolution Iran
US has played a major role in Saudi/ Gulf security

16. Russia Instrumental in the survival of the al Assad government
Close economic and security ties with Iran
Naval and Air bases in Syria

17. Shia Crescent Iraq War 2003
“If pro-Iranian parties or politicians dominate the new Iraqi government a new crescent of dominant Shia movements or governments stretching from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could emerge.” King Abdullah II

18. Iraq 2003 Shifting the Balance
Saddam Hussein as a regional stabilizer, limiting the hegemonic ambitions of Saudi and Iran through non-alignment
2003 invasion changed MECW dynamics

20. Lebanon Civil War
Fighting Began between Maronite Christians and factions of the PLO.
Following Black September (1970) PLO had been permitted to establish a semi-autonomous presence in the country
This unbalanced the fragile demographics

21. Confessionalism Lebanese Parliament
Confession Before Taif After Taif
Maronite Catholic
Eastern Orthodox
Melkite Catholic 6 8
Armenian Orthodox 4 5
Armenian Catholic 1 1
Protestant 1 1
Other Christian Minorities 1 1
Total Christians
Sunni
Shi'ite
Alawite 0 2
Druze 6 8
Total Muslims + Druze 45 64
Total

22. Hezbollah
Created in 1985 in response to the 1982 Israel occupation of south Lebanon
Trained and funded by IRGC as a militia group
Operates as militant organisation, resistance movement, political party and provider of social services similar to Hamas

23. Contemporary Proxy Conflicts
Syria/ Iraq
Yemen
Libya
Afghanistan

24. Now control large parts of Yemen
Houthi
Formed in the 1990s as a political religious group challenging protecting minority Zaidi in Yemen
Began an insurgency in 2004 eventually Successfully ousting al Salah after 35 years in power and his successor al Hadi
Now control large parts of Yemen
Receive material and training from Iran
"God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse the Jews, and victory for Islam

28. Shia Militias Iraq
Hashad al Shaabi, the Popular Mobilization Forces legitimized through a fatwa by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani,
Units have a variety of loyalties; Sistani, the government, Moqtada al-Sadr, Iran
Instrumental in challenging DAESH
Perceived as problematic to normal Iraq sovereignty
Recently legalized by Iraq Parliament