1. JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 2018
SMALLHOLDER RICE FARMER’S ADAPTATION AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE HAZARDS IN GHANA SUPERVISOR – PROF. KENICHI MATSUI PRESENTER - ZAKARIA ABDUL-RAZAK
JDS INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR JANUARY 2018

2. Presentation Outline Background Research Problem and Objectives
Research Findings (Work In Progress)
Future Plan

3. 1- Background 1
Climate change threatens our ability to achieve global food security, eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development (2030 agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals, FAO 2016)
Challenges regarding climate change adaptation in Africa
Inability of civil society and government organizations to access, interpret and use climate change information for planning and decision making (UNECA, 2014; Niang et al., 2014)
SDG 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts
Target 1; Strengthening resilient and adaptive capacity to climate change
Target 2; Improve education, awareness-raising and human & institutional capacity on climate and adaptation (FAO 2016)

4. Background - 2 Rice is Ghana’s second staple crop after maize(corn)
Between 2010 and 2015, rice demand is projected to grow at a compound annual growth of 11.8 percent and maize at 2.6 percent
However, Ghana is not self-sufficient in domestic rice supplies
Upper East - 15% food insecure (WFP 2009)
Declining rice production in the Upper East region of Ghana from Mt in 2010 to Mt in 2015 (MOFA/SRID)

5. Declining Rice Production
Problem Statement
FOOD SECURITY
Declining Rice Production
Production Factors
Climate
Small Holder Farmers
Mechanization
Soil
Erratic rainfall
Rising temperature
Small farm sizes
Lack of intensive cropping
No Farm machinery
No Irrigation
Infertile
Bush fire
Moisture Stress

6. Moisture Stress on Rice
Garu, 2017
Garu, 2017

7. Effects of Moisture Stress & Yield
Moisture stress at active tillering reduces yield by 30%
Moisture stress at reproductive phase reduces yield by 50 – 60% (
climate change hazards threaten small scale rice production
Increasing output levels (yields) for rice through the application of appropriate adaptation strategies is therefore imperative

8. Research Objectives 1
1. To assess smallholder rice farmers’ perception of the climate change hazards
2. To ascertain climate change patterns in the study area over the past two decades
i) To establish the pattern of rainfall in the study area
ii) To establish the pattern of temperature in the study area

9. Research Objective 2
3. To document climate change adaptation strategies employed by smallholder rice farmers 4. To assess the adaptive capacity of smallholder rice farmers to climate change hazards 5. To ascertain the effectiveness or otherwise of interventions introduced to smallholder rice farmers

10. Research Methodology STUDY AREA Sampling
Five (5) rice growing administrative Districts (Zebilla, Binduri, Garu-Tempane, Pusiga and Bawku Municipality)
15 communities (3 in each district)
Purposive sampling (rice growing communities) and random sampling (rice farmers)
150 farmers (30 from each district)

11. Data Collection & Analysis
Rainfall and temperature Analysis
Mann-Kendall’s trend and Sen’s slope test
Coefficient of variation
EXCELSTAT (Addinsoft 2017)
Field survey
Survey period- 25th of July to the 7th of August 2016
Four parts (4) - social characteristics, farmers’ experiences on climate change hazards, adaptation strategies and adaptive capacity and resilience
SPSS
Actual rainfall and temperature data ( )
Literature review
Personal work experience ( )

12. Social characteristics
Survey Results 1
Table 1 Socio-Demographic Characteristics
Social characteristics 
Category
Frequency
Percent
Age
20-29 10
6.7
30-39 33 22
40-49 59
39.3
50-59 28
18.7
60 & above 20
13.3
Gender
Female 54 36
Male 96 64
Education
JHS 15
SHS 4
2.7
Tertiary 7
4.7
Non-formal 3 2
No education
121
80.7
Years of experience
1-10 47
31.3
11-20
21-30 30
31-40 9 6
41-50
51-60+ 1
0.7
Total
150
100
130 (87%) respondents within age range years – high active labor force
121 (81%) respondents have no formal education
103 (69%) respondents have years rice farming experience

13. Survey Results 2
Fig. 1 Farmer Perception
> 60% of respondents perceived increasing temperature, decreasing rainfall, changing planting time and increasing drought
98% of respondents perceived reduced yield in rice production

14. Rainfall Analysis
Table 2 Results of Mann-Kendall trend test for 20-year average annual rainfall
Lowest, highest and mean annual rainfall is , and mm
Ho = there is no trend in the data set and Ha = there is trend in the data set
p-value = < Alpha = There is a trend in the 20-year rainfall data set
Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Average Annual rainfall (mm))
Kendall's tau
-0.326 S
Var (S)
p-value (Two-tailed)
0.048
Alpha
0.05
Table 3 Computed Sen’s slope
Fig. 3 Decreasing rainfall trend

15. Temperature Analysis
Table 4 Results of Mann-Kendall trend test, 20-year average annual maximum and minimum temperature
Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Maximum temperature)
Mann-Kendall trend test / Two-tailed test (Minimum temperature)
Kendall's tau
0.495
-0.047 S 94 -9
Var (S)
950
949
p-value (Two-tailed)
0.003
0.795
Alpha
0.05
Lowest, highest and mean maximum temperatures are 34.75, and 35.59oC
Lowest, highest and mean minimum temperatures , and oC
Lowest, highest and mean annual rainfall is , and mm
Ho = there is no trend in the data set and Ha = there is trend in the data set
p-value (max.)= < Alpha = There is a trend
p-value (min.)= 0.795> Alpha = There is no trend

16. Temperature Analysis Fig. 5
Table 5 Computed Sen’s slope for maximum and minimum temperature
Series\Test
Kendall's tau
p-value
Sen's slope
Maximum Temperature
0.495
0.003
0.055
Minimum Temperature
-0.047
0.795
-0.011
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

17. Coefficient of Variation
Fig. 6
Coefficient of variation of annual rainfall from
1996 to 2005 = 16.5%
2006 to 2015 = 28.1%
Annual rainfall have varied from the normal by 16.5% and 28.1% respectively
Could account responsible for the change in planting time
Fig. 7

18. Adaptation Strategies
Majority of smallholder rice farmers using improved rice varieties (79%), early planting (88%), field bunding (71%) and transplanting rice seedlings (53%)
Only 35% of respondents reported to have applied appropriate spacing

19. CONCLUSION
There is a decreasing rainfall trend and a high rainfall variability in the past two decades - last decade ( ), most severe
Temperature is also increasing
Farmer’s perception about climate change hazards are reliable in detecting changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and changing planting time
Low level of knowledge amongst smallholder rice farmers concerning rice transplanting and using appropriate spacing as effective adaptation strategies

20. Future Plan Assess the adaptive capacity of smallholder rice farmers
Assess the effectiveness of climate change adaptation interventions in the study area

21. Thank you for your attention