1. Z.Klimont, J.Cofala
EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
Variability in emission parameters of ozone precursors’ emissions in the GAINS model TFIEP/TFMM Workshop on Uncertainties in emission inventories and atmospheric models Dublin, Ireland, 22 October, 2007

2. Outline
Recent development and projections of ozone precursors’ emission in Europe
GAINS model versus national estimates of emissions
Examples of variation in unabated NOx and NMVOC emission factors
Examples of variation in activity data for 2000
Examples of variation in implied NOx and NMVOC emission factors
Example of different stakeholder’s perspective on evolution of emissions (penetration of measures)
Discussion

3. Development of total EU25 NOx and NMVOC emissions, GAINS model scenarios
message: emission estimates relatively stable, lower NOx emissions for NEC are due to more stringed legislation on cars and light-duty cars

4. Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs
Changes in national emission inventories for NEC vs. earlier assessment (1)
For some countries updates caused quite a big change compared with previous estimates

5. Changes in national emission inventories for 2000 - NEC vs
Changes in national emission inventories for NEC vs. earlier assessment (2)

6. National assessments vs. RAINS estimate for 2000
SO2
NOx
NH3
NMVOC
concentrate on NOx and NMVOC but say that you show other pollutants to check if differences for ozone precursors are smaller

7. PM emissions – national assessment vs. RAINS estimate for 2000
Differences particularly high because:
not all countries report PM 2.5
common methodologies still under development
different coverage (some sectors not included, re-suspension etc.)

8. Variation in unabated NOx emission factors in CAFE and NEC scenarios - The data are for EU-25 countries
similar patterns for CAFE and NEC, no dramatic changes but differences among countries (different infrastructures, types of equipment)

9. Variation in unabated NMVOC emission factors in CAFE and NEC scenarios - The data are for EU-25 countries

10. Changes in activity data used in various GAINS scenarios

11. Changes in activity data used in various GAINS scenarios

12. Evolution of implied NOx ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

13. NMVOC
Evolution of implied NMVOC ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

14. NMVOC
Evolution of implied NMVOC ef in CAFE and NEC scenarios The value ranges for EU-25 countries

15. NMVOC emission trends (example for coating sector) national vs
NMVOC emission trends (example for coating sector) national vs. industrial perspective

16. Uncertainty of sectoral NOx emissions vs. national total, UK
Uncertainty of sectoral NOx emissions vs. national total, UK. Source: Schöpp et al., 2005
1990
2010
Fuel
Sector
Rank
S.D.
10^3 tons
95 % CI
Gasoline
Passenger cars 1
100
±26 % -
Hard coal
Power plants, existing 2 67
±19 % 25
±29 %
Diesel
Heavy duty trucks 3 65 36
±35 %
Off-road machinery 4 18 15
±33 %
n.a.
Industrial processes 5 23
±36 % 34
±50 %
Heavy fuel oil 6 7 10
Nat. sea traffic, L 8
Natural gas
Domestic 12
±28 %
Nat. sea traffic, M 9
Air traffic and other 11 22
Power plants, new
National total
141
±10 % 66
±11 %

17. All factors considered ±10 % ±11 %
95 % confidence intervals for total UK NOx emissions estimated in the RAINS model Source: Schöpp et al., 2005
1990
2010
Activity data
±5 %
±8 %
Emission factors
±9 %
±7 %
Removal efficiency
±0 %
±3 %
All factors considered
±10 %
±11 %

18. Conclusions
Uncertainty of total national emission estimates lower than sectoral uncertainties
For projection years uncertainty of future activity levels plays a key role
Assessment of emissions of ozone precursors burdened with lower variability compared with other pollutants (NH3, PM)
Small change in unabated EFs between CAFE and NEC; GAINS sufficiently calibrated in result of bilateral consultations with MS
Implied factors may change relatively quickly and therefore update for the purpose of inventory important
Important improvement of emission inventories and projections achieved recently (CAFE, NEC, ARTEMIS, COPERT); Further efforts for sectors covered will bring diminishing returns
Current assessments good enough for integrated assessment at the European level but:
Some sectors require more in-depth analysis
More detailed information needed for local assessment