1. Sustainability in a Multipolar World
Trends and Future of Sustainable Development
June 9-10, 2011
Rob Weterings, Marjolein de Ridder, Erik Frinking

2. Outline
Objective
Methodology
Key Findings
Policy implications

3. Objective Background notion Research questions Objective
1987: Brundtland commission initiates an international momentum in
developing a global policy agenda for sustainable development
2009: Climate Conference Copenhagen is dominated by national interests
rather than multilateralism
Research questions
* How do various countries/regions define and operationalise the concept of
sustainable development?
* Is an international shared sustainability framework likely to develop?
Objective
Identify opportunities for co-operative sustainability strategies
in a multipolar world

4. Methodology Comparative Policy review Meta-Foresight Study
The Netherlands (EU), China, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa
Focus on national contexts, definitions, priorities and prerequisites, policies and strategies
Economic, Environmental and Social dimension of sustainability
Meta-Foresight Study
Sources: 33 (mainly) English-language Foresights
Focus on sustainability or sustainable development
Parameters, drivers, disruptive developments, implications

5. Key Finding: convergence
Sustainability is primarily about economic development that respects the environment and human needs
Energy security is a main issue for all countries reviewed
Energy is key for economic growth
Concerns about energy security effectively drive policy makers
Overarching issues:
Climate change Education
Water scarcity Technology

6. Key finding: divergence
Sustainable development is a broad concept.
The emphasis in national policies reflects different national contexts
Russia stresses national security as a prerequisite
China, India and South Africa put emphasis on poverty reduction
The Netherlands and South Africa identify threats for social cohesion
Climate change touches on various issues
New economic opportunities in Siberia and the Arctic Ocean (Russia)
Present vulnerabilities: drought, flooding, health issues (Mexico, India, South Africa)
Development rights and historic responsibilities (China, Mexico, India, South Africa)

7. Key finding: possible scenarios
Foresights are distributed across possible scenarios:
International consensus in developing a joined sustainability framework
National approaches driven by national priorities / ‘free for all’
Bottom up approaches by business, individuals and NGO’s

8. Key finding: public - private
Sustainability issues need to be addressed by government and private sector
State as partner
State as rival
State as conduit

9. 4. Policy implications A more comprehensive approach
Mitigation and Abatement of short term effects
Poverty reduction and Social cohesion
Education and Technology transfer
Involve businesses worldwide
New partnerships between state, private sector and NGO’s
Coordinated action
Main issues require action at the regional level
Global partnerships based on shared interests: economic diplomacy?