1. North America 5G Outlook
ITS Workshop, Ottawa
March 28, 2019
Mike Murphy
CTO, North & South America

2. Launch Plans 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023+ 1 2 3 4 5 Soft Launch iPhone
5G IoT &
LTE Decline
TDD/NSA
R15 Dec
FDD/SA
R15 March
Verizon Oct, 2018 FWA
AT&T Dec, 2018 HotSpot
All 2Q19 Mobility
The Race!

3. Differentiate with spectrum
Spectrum Plans
Auctions
28GHz Jan’18
24GHz Mar’19
600MHz=326x
price of 28GHz
Pre-Auction
Holdings
Auctions √
CBRS
NR work started
(~1y to finish)
<6GHz
600
2.5
B5/66
mmWave
28+39 39 28
T-Mobile
Sprint
VZ, AT&T
Verizon
AT&T
2019
GAA
28, 24,
37, 39, 47
2020+
PAL, 3.1,
3.55, 3.7
5.1 GHz
C-Band Alliance
180MHz 18-36m
Canada
MHz
GHz
/39GHz
*Re-Farming
650 MHz
Use existing assets
Differentiate with spectrum
Acquire new assets
Level playing field

4. e.g., mmW focus = top 20% of sites mid-band may re-use LTE grid
5G Deployment
Accenture: Jan23, ‘19
USA : 800K Sites
Expected Coverage Focus
USA Forecast
Traditional Site
+36K Sites
100 75 50 25
Mid-band
mmWave
+227K Sites
mmWave
% Sites
Mid
Low
% Traffic
e.g., mmW focus = top 20% of sites
[ Typical city : 3K coverage, 50Mbps ]
mmW ~2-4x today’s sites,
mid-band may re-use LTE grid

5. Regulatory support critical for 5G enablement
US Regulatory Support
reclassified broadband Internet access service as a telecommunications service subject to myriad regulatory obligations under Title II of the Communications Act of 1934, as amended (the Act). We reverse this misguided and legally flawed approach and restore broadband Internet access service to its Title I information service classification. See Protecting and Promoting the Open Internet, WC Docket No , Report and Order on Remand, Declaratory Ruling, and Order, 30 FCC Rcd (2015) (Title II Order).
√ Siting Reform
September 27, 2018
√ Accelerated mmWave Auctions
√ Spectrum Strategy Memorandum
October 5, 2018
Regulatory support critical for 5G enablement

6. Capacity Forecast (US Customer)
McKinsey shows 2020
Highlights
LTE exhaust 2022
5G devices dominate 2023
LTE+5G capacity plan needed PB
5G Critical
User Demand
LTE Capacity 8X 1X
LTE capacity growth, with
5G acceleration.
No other options!
5G Start
5G>4G
*mMIMO applied on >1GHz, densification/yr.
*Mobile churn

7. LTE Simulation – LAA, CBRS
LTE Capacity vs User Demand
Highlights
<6GHz insufficient 2021+
mmW mandatory
Indoor a major challenge
need mid-band
Capacity Needed
(5G new bands)
Challenges with mmW density & indoor coming quickly

8. Distributed, virtualized, low latency network
Architecture
New : Edge Architecture & Suppliers
Far
Edge
New : Interfaces
Metro
Edge
Core
CRAN
vRAN
Open
eCPRI / F1
UPF
AMF
MEC
IMS
UDM W5
GAN
LTE, 5G,
FWA
Automation/Security
Flexible placement
Open
Distributed, virtualized, low latency network

9. Converged Architecture
MSO, MNO
Assets
Converged Architecture
COs, Cable Hubs
Overlap
Shared
Common
CRAN
vRAN
UPF
AMF
MEC
IMS
LTE, 5G, FWA
DOCSIS, PON
UDM
Automation/Security
DOCSIS
N2/N3
XPON
vCMTS
vOLT W5
GAN
Convergence Technically Viable
Active customer proposals in progress

10. Core View √ X √ 3GPP Options Alternate 3x+2 (no eLTE)
Inter-System Handoff √
Launch: 3x
4G Services
EPC
EPC
5GC X
Alternate
3x+2
(no eLTE)
Transition: 7x, 4
4G & 5G Services
*R15 ASN.1 June ‘19
EPC
5GC
4G UE
3X UE
2 UE √
Target: 2
5G Services
5GC
Decision on options ~1Q19

11. RAN Evolution Linear Capacity Centralization vRAN Phase 1 vRAN Phase 2
Hubs USA
~2300 YE19
Commercial
2019 / 5G
Field Trial
2020
Linear Capacity
Centralization
vRAN Phase 1
vRAN Phase 2
PDCP
RLC
PDCP
RLC
MAC
AirScale 4G & 5G
RLC
MAC
Costs well known
CPRI
eCPRI / F1

12. Fundamental change to industry
Open Systems AI
Fundamental change to industry
MANO
Target innovation, cost
Approach is disaggregation
Disrupting status quo
…aligns with Nokia vision
Edge
EDGE STACK
RIC
Trials 2019
RAN
O-RAN
Total ~20 Forums
Many new

13. Use Cases 5G Fixed Wireless Access 2019 Mobility Fixed 2020+
Nokia 5G CPE
mmW 2020
2020+
28GHz – 300Mbps (e.g., Verizon)
3.5GHz – 100 Mbps (e.g., Optus)
Verticals
(IoT)
VZ 800MHz
Optus 60MHz
Where are we?

14. New Market Players Triggers CBRS Edge Clouds Openness 144 Members
Salt & Pepper
Mix & Match
Where are we?

15. Tick-Tock, or Why 5G Must Happen Soon in the US
August 21, 2018
Mike Murphy, chief technology officer in North America for Nokia, said U.S. wireless carriers need a minimum of 100 MHz each in GHz C-band to deploy 5G services. He also urged U.S. action on siting, saying infrastructure can be deployed more quickly in China and South Korea. There should be standardized processes and costs for deploying small cells, Mr. Murphy suggested.
TR Daily
April 20, 2018

16. Nokia 5G