1. Mollington, 14 October 2011 Adrian Bailey UKelect.wordpress.com
LCUS Lewis Carroll meets Franz Kafka Parliamentary Boundary Review: Cheshire
Mollington, 14 October 2011
Adrian Bailey
UKelect.wordpress.com

2. The Commission’s proposals

4. Labour’s version

5. Labour’s glennmanders
Wirral Runcorn
Northwich
Chester

6. Why are people issuing proposals that make them look stupid?
“The Commission use district wards as the smallest unit for designing constituencies and do not divide wards between constituencies.” (Guide to the 5th General Review)
The 5% law

7. The Law versus The Rule minimum 72,810, maximum 80,473
Once ward size reaches 8,000, redistricting is impossible:
9 x 8,000 = 72,000, 10 x 8,000 = 80,000
8 x 9,000 = 72,000, 9 x 9,000 = 81,000
7 x 10,000 = …
“You do the math.”

8. 51 “2010” wards

9. The Cheshire conundrum
52 wards (including Heswall or Eastham)
average size 10,500
4 seats at 73,500
3 seats at 84,000

10. Chunking versus Tacking
“So far as is practicable no county or any part of a county shall be included in a constituency which includes the whole or part of any other county.”
Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986

11. 2006 Wallasey 66,845 Birkenhead 66,452 Wirral West 56,085
Wirral South 57,801
2006

12. “The BCE seeks to avoid dividing wards between constituencies wherever possible.”
“The BCE’s view is that, in the absence of exceptional and compelling circumstances it would not be appropriate to divide wards in cases where it is possible to construct constituencies that meet the statutory electorate range without dividing them.”
Guide to the Sixth Review

13. The Choice The Commission’s and the Parties’ convenience or
Sensible constituencies that respect boundaries and maintain local ties

14. From the ridiculous to the extreme…

15. My proposal (1)

16. (Back to the 90’s)

17. split wards Alderley: Alderley Edge > Macc Fulshaw > Tatton
Doddington: Haslington > Congleton
Cholmondeley: Acton & Audlem > C&N
Mickle Trafford: Elton > Ellesmere Port

18. 163 “2004” wards

19. My proposal (1)

20. It’s not rocket science
Macc 78,204
Tatton 78,054
Congleton 78,384
Crewe 78,710
Chester 77,987
Eddisbury 78,198
Ellesmere Port 77,913

21. And for my next trick…
A proposal using the permanent “2011” wards

22. My proposal (2)

23. The boundary paradox
The law says that if you use boundaries you have to use the 2010 boundaries, but the law doesn’t say you have to use those boundaries.

24. What was that again?
“Any division of wards between constituencies would be likely to break local ties, disrupt political party organisations, and cause difficulties for Electoral Registration and Returning Officers.”
Guide to the Sixth Review

25. 98 “2011” wards

26. Seats based on new wards
Macc 78,424
Tatton 79,015
Congleton 77,869
Crewe & Nantwich 77,589
Eddisbury 79,363
Chester 79,447
Ellesmere Port 77,508

27. My proposal (2)
no split wards

28. I know you’re wondering…
What about Poynton? Halton?

29. Good old chunking: electorate ÷ 76641
Cheshire+Wirral
Warrington
Liverpool
Sefton+Knowsley
St Helens+Halton
Stockport+Tameside
Oldham
Rochdale
Manchester+Salford+Trafford 8.81

30. My plan
for the
North West

31. Conclusion Let’s get the balance right
Give people the right tools to do the job.

32. LCUS Adrian Bailey ukelect.wordpress.com

33. Dedicated to The Boundary Commissioners
Philip Sales – chancery judge
David Elvin – planning lawyer
Neil Pringle – former chief executive of Herefordshire Council