1. Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium
OGC Technology Forecasting George Percivall OGC CTO, Chief Engineer
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

2. Technology Forecasting
Identification of
Technology Trends
Breadth
Assess
Characterize and Prioritize Trends
Take Action for Innovation
Focus
Present the OGC Tech Forecasting
Methodology of forecasting
Current forecasts – trends
Making use of the forecast
How OGC uses the forecast across the programs
How members can make use of the program
Early identification of disruptive technologies
Support discovery-driven planning
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

3. The Innovator's Dilemma
Tech progress can, and often does, outstrip what markets need
Disruptive innovations result in worse performance, in near term
Cheaper, simpler, smaller, and, frequently, more convenient to use
Large companies overlook disruptive technologies until they make a profit
How to succeed
Identify disruptive technologies before they overtake the traditional
Discovery-driven planning
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

4. Technology Advances are the highest anticipated transformation by CEOs
Price Waterhouse Coopers CEO Survey
Technology advances seen as the most transformative trend.
© 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

5. OGC’s response to the Innovator’s Dilemma
Maintain current OGC standards while simultaneously addressing evolution of technology and markets
Ensure harmonization in OGC standards
OGC response to Innovators Dilemma
Extend or adapt present baseline of standards
New standards that may overlap or diverge from existing standards, along with guidance to evaluate among options
Harmonization techniques (brokers, facades) for interoperability
Establish a Technology Forecasting System
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

6. Forecasting of Technologies
National Academies Report
Need for Persistent Long-Term Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies
Existing Technology Forecasting Methodologies
The Nature of Disruptive Technologies
Reducing Forecasting Ignorance and Bias
Ideal Attributes of a Disruptive Technology Forecasting System
Evaluating Existing Persistent Forecasting Systems
Recommended by Mike Jackson, OGC Board of Directors
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

7. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies
Technology forecasting system
Technologies, people, and processes assembled to minimize surprise triggered by emerging or disruptive technologies, in order to support decision making.
Disruptive technology
Innovative technology that triggers sudden and unexpected effects.
Brings about a sudden change to established technologies and markets (Bower and Christensen, 1995)
Difficult to identify or foresee.
Tipping point
Time at which the momentum for change becomes unstoppable
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

8. OGC Technology Forecasting
Breadth
Assessment
Take Action
e.g. planning Testbeds
Focus
Member Consultation
Standards
Program
Communications
& Outreach
Innovation
e.g. Future Directions
e.g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion
e.g. Location Powers
Identify and Characterize Trends
Prioritize and Evaluate Trends
Trends Mindmap
Technology Roadmaps
The OGC process at t high level is straight forward – we work with our members, our liaison and partner organizations, and experts form the broader technology community to identify potential technology trends. We then engage in a process to characterize and prioritize these trends with respect to what OGC can do to support more efficient deployment of these trends. Finally we work to identify specific initiatives and priorities to insert activities in our process to support development of standards and best practices / interoperability arrangements and efficiencies to allow trends to be rapidly mobilized as they become market realities.
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

9. OGC Technology Forecasting
Breadth
Assessment
Take Action
e.g. planning Testbeds
Focus
Member Consultation
Standards
Program
Communications
& Outreach
Innovation
e.g. Future Directions
e.g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion
e.g. Location Powers
Identify and Characterize Trends
Prioritize and Evaluate Trends
Trends Mindmap
Technology Roadmaps
The OGC process at t high level is straight forward – we work with our members, our liaison and partner organizations, and experts form the broader technology community to identify potential technology trends. We then engage in a process to characterize and prioritize these trends with respect to what OGC can do to support more efficient deployment of these trends. Finally we work to identify specific initiatives and priorities to insert activities in our process to support development of standards and best practices / interoperability arrangements and efficiencies to allow trends to be rapidly mobilized as they become market realities.
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

10. OGC Tech Trends Mindmap
OGC maintains our Technology Trends and roadmapping on a GitHub site that is publicly accessible. Just visit the URL noted here, or search for “OGC Technology Trends” to access the GitHub repository for our work. Please also offer your recommendations on trends of importance - this process benefits greatly from broad community input.
Publicly Available at:
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

11. Trend Identification Sources
Ongoing Monitoring
2019Q2 Specific
OGC activities
SP Future Directions
Innovation Program
Geospatial sources
General:
Science: AGU, ESIP
GEOINT: USGIF
Information Technology
Literature: ACM, IEEE,
Medium, etc.
W3C/OGC SDWIG Funnel
Broader
Atlantic, Economist, Science, etc.
Newspapers, Blogs, (long live Texture)
CTO research
177 articles
OGC activities
Future Directions, Feb 2019
MR to the Edge Workshop
OAB
External
GWF
JTC 1 Emerging Tech
Perspective:
Information technology and Geospatial applications as broad as possible
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

12. Trend Identification - Future
BigKnowledge LLC
Demo and White Paper
Staff evaluation ongoing
BoKMap viz of network 
trend analysis
novelty detection
topical density
Knowledge Sources ingest
journals, magazines, job portals, press releases, patent filings
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

13. OGC Standards as Query in Data Science & Analytics Analyst Input: List of 61 Standards at Output: Top-100 Tech Articles, Ranked by Date

14. Characterizing identified Trends
Effective
New tech that makes a difference; produces an advantage
Convergence
When similar technologies from several communities become the multiple basis for an emergent trends
Tipping point
The conditions at which a bifurcation occurs, producing qualitatively different asymptotic behavior
Consider bias
Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman
Peculiar Blindness of Experts - The Atlantic
Be like the broad foxes not like the narrow Hedgehogs. - Tetlock
Good judgement project
Diverse information more than secret information
Don't let successful prediction reinforce beliefs
Peculiar Blindness of Experts - The Atlantic
Perspective:
Narrowing focus to role of OGC in IT and Geospatial
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

15. Trend Characterizations – 2019Q2
Digital Twin: Static and Dynamic
Web of Data (Linked Data, Property Graphs)
Machine Learning
High Definition maps for Autonomous Vehicles
Data Science and Analtyics
Immersive Geo: AR, VR, MR
Quantum Computing and Sensing
Smallsats and ground stations
Perspective:
Narrowing focus to role of OGC in IT and Geospatial
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

16. Characterization: Machine Learning
Trend
Machine Learning
Meta Trend
Data Science and Analytics
Description from Wikipedia
Subfield of computer science that gives computers the ability to learn without being explicitly programmed. Deep learning - a sub type of machine learning - consists of multiple hidden layers in an artificial neural network.
What is new or emerging?
3rd generation of Machine Learning providing revolutionary big data capabilities
Why might it matter?
Significantly improved ability to to identify features in geospatial datasets, e.g., patterns in linked data, objects in features.
SW TRL
Level 7 – Demo in Operational Environment
IRL
Level 5 – sufficient control between technologies necessary to establish, manage, and terminate the integration
References
Location Powers: Big Data
OGC Big Geo Data White Paper
Tipping Point
Past: ImageNet2012
OGC SP
Big Data DWG
OGC IP
OGC Testbeds - Testbed-14: Machine Learning Engineering Report
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

17. Characterization: Quantum Computing
Trend
Quantum Computing
Meta Trend
Information Technology
Description
From Wikipedia
Quantum computing is the use of quantum-mechanical phenomena such as superposition and entanglement to perform computation.
A quantum computer is used to perform such computation, which can be implemented theoretically or physically.
What is new or emerging?
Increasing number qubits integrated on a chip – Current: 49 by Intel
Monthly announcements of new theoretical algorithms
Why might it matter?
Promise of improved solutions for many difficult geospatial algorithms.  
Exponential acceleration of computing on certain problems, e.g., NP-complete such as Traveling Salesman Problem
Quantum computing and machine-learning technique
SW TRL
Level 1 – Basic Principles Observed and Reported
IRL
Level 0 – Integration has not begun
References
"Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects" - National Academies, 2019
…no fundamental reason why a large, fault-tolerant quantum computer could not be built in principle. However, significant technical challenges remain
"Case Against Quantum Computing” – IEEE Spectrum 2019
Tremendous gap between experiments that have been carried out with a few qubits and the extremely developed quantum-computing theory. That gap is not likely to be closed anytime soon.
Tipping Point
Future: Quantum computer with sustained operations on substantial algorithm
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

18. Characterization: Web of Data/Linked Data
Trend
Web of Data/Linked Data
Meta Trend
Spatial Data on the Web
Description
Data published on the web are made discoverable, accessible and interoperable using WWW best practices for data formats, data access, data identifiers, metadata, licensing and provenance.
What is new or emerging?
W3C Workshop on Web Standardization for Graph Data – March 2019
- Support for adding geospatial and temporal to graph query languages
Emerging progress on Property Graphs standards in JTC 1 SQL - June 2019
- Property Graph Queries as a new part of SQL standards,
- New declarative property graph language - may be called GQL.
Schema.org and JSON-LD
Why might it matter?
OGC Environmental Linked Features Interoperability Experiment
Power of OGC APIs to expose features in the context of rich domain-feature-model-based linked data while following W3C best practices
Advantages similar to adding Topology to Geometry queries.
SW TRL
TRL 5 Component validation in relevant environment
References
OGC T15 Scenario: Richelieu River hydro linked data harvest model
Tipping Point
Standards established and implemented broadly for Property Graph queries
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

19. OGC Technology Forecasting
Breadth
Assessment
Take Action
e.g. planning Testbeds
Focus
Member Consultation
Standards
Program
Communications
& Outreach
Innovation
e.g. Future Directions
e.g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion
e.g. Location Powers
Identify and Characterize Trends
Prioritize and Evaluate Trends
Trends Mindmap
Technology Roadmaps
The OGC process at t high level is straight forward – we work with our members, our liaison and partner organizations, and experts form the broader technology community to identify potential technology trends. We then engage in a process to characterize and prioritize these trends with respect to what OGC can do to support more efficient deployment of these trends. Finally we work to identify specific initiatives and priorities to insert activities in our process to support development of standards and best practices / interoperability arrangements and efficiencies to allow trends to be rapidly mobilized as they become market realities.
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

20. OGC Tech Trends Horizon
Value of technology forecasting is less about precise predictions about the future, rather to support planning and minimize surprises
Horizon is not a particular year, i.e., what will be new tech in 2025
Its about what should we work on “Next and after Next”
“We knew it was coming, we just didn’t think it would come that fast?
Survey the trends broadly identify those sets of trends that warrant a roadmap
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

21. Identifying “Ripe Trends”
Criteria 1: Horizon
Now: current activity in OGC program that is leading to mature product (TRL 6+)
Next: Planned for next testbed or a SWG to happen in the next year.
After Next: Future
Criteria 2: Impact
Sustaining innovation
comes from listening to the needs of customers in the existing market and creating products that satisfy their predicted needs for the future.
Disruptive innovation
Disruptive innovation creates new markets separate to the mainstream; markets that are unknowable at the time of the technologies conception.
Disruptive
Ripe – High
Near Ripe – Medium
Sustaining
Track – Low
Next
After Next
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

22. © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium
Priority Tech Trends
Disruptive
Ripe – High
Near Ripe – Medium
Sustaining
Track – Low
Next
After Next
Machine Learning
Blockchain
Quantum Computing
Data Science
Autonomous Cars
Immersive Geo: xR
UAV/UAS
IoT/Edge/Fog
Smallsats
Web of Data
Digital Twin
Mod, Sim, Predict
Indoor
In addition to roadmapping Smart Cities and Big Data trends the following trends are in the process of being prioritized for assessment and roadmapping, as these represent sever of the “Next” technology trends. .
5G Cellular
= Priority
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

23. Roadmapping Priority Trends
Helps predict market’s future technology
Guides R&D decisions
Increases collaboration, shared knowledge and new partnerships
Reduces risk of costly investment in technology
Perspective:
Anticipating actions to be taken by OGC, Members, alliances.
Source: Technology Roadmapping in Canada
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

24. Cambridge Univ. Roadmapping Template
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

25. Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium
Roadmapping Template
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

26. Tech Notes for Priority Trends
Previously Developed
Smart Cities
Geospatial Big Data
Edge and Fog Computing
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

27. Big Geospatial Data – White Paper
Big Data applications –
Geospatial Data Representations:
Geo Features
Geo Coverages
Discrete Global Grids
Linked Data
Geospatial Datacubes
massive multi-dimensional array
Extend Big Data Open Source
Analysis-Ready Data
Data registration task shifted from user to data provider
Analytics - query language
131r2.html
Screenshot source: rasdaman
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

28. Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

29. Edge-Fog-Cloud Computing
Fog Computing: Compute, Storage, and Decision making close to network edge
Geospatial Edge-Fog Computing
Address proliferation of sensors and platforms
Extend geospatial Feature detection and tracking
Edge/Fog commodity Machine learning for geospatial computing
Linked Geodata across the Edge-Fog-Cloud continuum
Autonomy for tasking in Edge- Fog using geospatial
OGC White Paper – Doc
OpenFog Intelligence from data (Source: OpenFog Consortium)
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

30. Mixed Reality to the Edge
G. Percivall contribution to OGC Mixed Reality to the Edge Concept Development Study

31. Geospatial in Edge-Fog-Cloud Computing An OGC White Paper
Edge and Fog computing extend the ubiquity of computing beyond the Cloud
Existing Geospatial standards are relevant to Edge/Fog
SWE including SensorThings for IoT applications
Geospatial Fusion using WPS 
Plan for extending geospatial interoperability across the Edge-Fog-Cloud continuum:
Address proliferation of sensors and platforms
Extend geospatial Feature detection and tracking
Edge/Fog commodity Machine learning for geospatial computing
Linked Geodata across the Edge-Fog-Cloud continuum
Autonomy for tasking in Edge-Fog using geo
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

32. Edge-Fog-Cloud (OGC White Paper - 18-004)
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

33. Models, Simulation and Prediction
Convergence of
Gaming and Simulation
Built Environment Modeling
Predictive Earth System Models
OGC Tech Forecasting examines three categories
It is “time for geography to mature as a predictive science ... seeking to predict locations where before there was contentment with simply describing and classifying them.”
Theoretical Geography, Bunge (1966: XVI)
Markets
Sustainable Development
Smart Cities
Disaster Management
Resource Management
Entertainment and Gaming
Applications
Earth System Modeling
Integrated environmental models
Gaming and simulation
Urban 3D modeling
Technology
Geospatial
Environmental modeling frameworks
Model builders from LIDAR and BIM
Gaming platforms
Visualization
Computing Platforms
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

34. Mod/Sim/Predict Tech Note - topics
Convergence of:
Modeling and Simulation
Predictive Earth System Models
Built Environment Modeling
Gaming
Value of Mod/Sim/Predict
Geospatial Intelligence
Sustainable Development
Smart Cities
Resource Management
Entertainment and Gaming
Computing Tech and Platforms
Cloud computing
Big Data software
Programming and scripting languages
Visualization
OGC Standards
CDB
OpenMI
WPS and Workflow
i3S and 3DTiles
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

35. Mod-Sim-Predict Tech Note Outline
1. Advancing Mod, Sim, Predict Convergence 2. Value of MSP - Markets 2.1. Sustainable Development Smart Cities 2.2. Geospatial Intelligence 2.3. Resource Management 2.4. Entertainment and Gaming 3. Use cases – Applications 3.1. Earth System Modeling 3.2. Integrated environmental models 3.3. Modeling and simulation 3.4. Urban 3D modeling 3.5. Gaming
4. Technology to advance MSP
4.1. Cross-Cutting topics
4.2. Standards
4.3. M&S Projects
4.4. Integrated Environmental Modeling projects
4.5. Computing Technology and Platforms
5. Recommended actions
Annex A: Relevant OGC Standards
Annex B: Relevant OGC Engineering Reports
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

36. Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

37. OGC Technology Forecasting
Breadth
Assessment
Take Action
e.g. planning Testbeds
Focus
Member Consultation
Standards
Program
Communications
& Outreach
Innovation
e.g. Future Directions
e.g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion
e.g. Location Powers
Identify and Characterize Trends
Prioritize and Evaluate Trends
Trends Mindmap
Technology Roadmaps
The OGC process at t high level is straight forward – we work with our members, our liaison and partner organizations, and experts form the broader technology community to identify potential technology trends. We then engage in a process to characterize and prioritize these trends with respect to what OGC can do to support more efficient deployment of these trends. Finally we work to identify specific initiatives and priorities to insert activities in our process to support development of standards and best practices / interoperability arrangements and efficiencies to allow trends to be rapidly mobilized as they become market realities.
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

38. Decision Maker Support
OGC Programs
Requirements
Developer
Support
Engineering
Support
Community Support
Decision Maker Support
Innovation
Program
Gaps &
Enhancements
Engineering Reports &
Compliance Tests
Communications
& Outreach
Standards
Program
Requirements
Adopted Standards
Requirements
Compliance
Program

39. Technology Trends and Testbed-14
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

40. Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium
Testbed 16
Preliminary Ideas: Based on Tech Trends and previous Testbeds:
Big Data Analytics
Distributed Ledger, including Blockchain
OGC Web API Interfaces
OGC GeoPackage
Workflows on Hybrid Cloud Environments
Application Containers, such as Docker
GeoSemantics and Linked Data
Tiled Feature Data, including Vector Tiles
Security 
GeoHealth
Smart Cities 
OGC MapML Specification
Discrete Global Grid System (DGGS)
Data Cubes
Unmanned Systems
Schedule
Call for Sponsors – 1 May 2019
IP lunch at June TC – contact Luis Bermudez
Freeze ideas – 20 Sept 2019
Draft CFP – Nov/Dec 2019
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

41. Initiative to Trend Engineering Report Trend Innovation Program

42. Feedback Loops Tech-Trends Future Directions Innovation Program
Standards
Program

43. OGC TC Future Directions
Future Directions sessions
Held quarterly during OGC Technical Committee meetings
Provide OGC members with exposure to technology trends that are likely to have an impact on OGC standards
Format:
TC-wide audience
Typically 4 invited speakers
15-minute presentations
Speakers panel for Q&A
Organized by Gobe Hobona, OGC KM
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

44. Future Directions Session Process
Hold Future Directions session at TC
Invite speakers
Select based on interests of members and non-members
Discuss with OGC Architecture Board
Options from OGC Tech Trends
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

45. TC Future Directions, March 2018 – Autonomy at the Edge
Introduction – Gobe Hobona (OGC)
SAPIENT – Iain Burnell (Dstl)
OpenFog Consortium – Frank Michaud (OpenFog and CISCO)
Edge-Fog-Cloud Computing White paper – George Percivall (OGC), Don Sullivan (NASA), Scott Simmons (OGC)
Connected Autonomous Vehicles - Jeremy Morley (Ordnance Survey)
Discussion
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

46. TC Future Directions, Feb 2019 – Predictive Modeling
Future Directions of Modeling, Simulation and Gaming used for Training and Rehearsal – David Graham (Eagle Cap Systems/CAE)
Observations on Developments in Information Modelling – Clemens Portele (Interactive Instruments GmbH)
A Brief History of Meteorology and Numerical Weather Prediction – Chris Little (UK Met Office)
Lessons for Future OWS-Supported Geospatial Predictive Modeling – Gobe Hobona (OGC)
Panel Discussion
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

47. Location Powers LP: Smart cities LP: Big Data LP: Big Linked Geodata
Tokyo – December 2014
LP: Big Data
Orlando – September 2016
LP: Big Linked Geodata
Delft – March 2017
LP: Underground
London – September 2017
LP: Agriculture
New Zealand – December 2017
LP: Built Environment
Singapore – September 2018

48. OGC Technology Forecasting
Breadth
Assessment
Take Action
e.g. planning Testbeds
Focus
Member Consultation
Standards
Program
Communications
& Outreach
Innovation
e.g. Future Directions
e.g. NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion
e.g. Location Powers
Identify and Characterize Trends
Prioritize and Evaluate Trends
Trends Mindmap
Technology Roadmaps
The OGC process at t high level is straight forward – we work with our members, our liaison and partner organizations, and experts form the broader technology community to identify potential technology trends. We then engage in a process to characterize and prioritize these trends with respect to what OGC can do to support more efficient deployment of these trends. Finally we work to identify specific initiatives and priorities to insert activities in our process to support development of standards and best practices / interoperability arrangements and efficiencies to allow trends to be rapidly mobilized as they become market realities.
© 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium

49. Tech Trends Consultation
Tailored discussion of Tech Trends
Discuss and refine Tech Trends in the OGC mindmap
Consultation on specific topics of interest
NDA style discussion
Part of OGC Strategy and Principal Members staff support
Levels of involvement
Programmed Report
Templated report developed by OGC staff by tailoring the Tech Forecasting to the interests of the requesting organization.
Trend Assessment Study
Similar to OGC a Concept Development Study, but instead of focused on a given concept it would be a broad review.
Copyright © 2018 Open Geospatial Consortium

50. OGC Technology Trends Publicly Available Tailored consultation
Please Comment
Tailored consultation
NDA Tailored forecasts/discussion for your organization
Call for Sponsors
To support expansion of Tech Forecasting with BigKnowledge AI
Benefits include consultation and recognition
Contact George Percivall,
Copyright © 2019 Open Geospatial Consortium