1. Uncertainties of heavy metal pollution assessment
Oleg Travnikov
EMEP/MSC-E

2. Outline Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis Models intercomparison
Model results vs. measurements
Back trajectory analysis
Emission reporting for model application

3. Model sensitivity analysis
Pb and Cd total deposition
Hg total deposition

4. Model intrinsic uncertainty without effect of emissions
Model uncertainty
Model intrinsic uncertainty without effect of emissions
Lead and cadmium
Mercury
Uncertainty 30-40%
Uncertainty 20-50%

5. Workshop on review of MSC-E models on HMs and POPs (Moscow, 2005)
Purpose
to establish whether MSC-E models on HMs and POPs are state of the art and fit for the purpose of evaluating long-range transport of HMs and POPs.
Conclusions [ ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4 ]
The model parameterization is appropriate for operational modelling of heavy metal concentration and deposition in Europe
HM depositions, concentrations and transboundary fluxes of HMs calculated by MSC-E model corresponded well with other transport models
Other models, such as the MSC-E model, underestimated air and precipitation concentrations of Pb and Cd when using official emission data

6. Model intercomparison
Cd air concentration (2000)
MSCE-HM
CMAQ
Comparison of MSCE-HM and CMAQ models for Pb and Cd
CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality model) – 3D chemical transport model developed in US EPA
Conditions of comparison:
Anthropogenic emissions based on official and ESPREME data
Identical meteorological data for 2000
Similar initial and boundary conditions

7. Model intercomparison
Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2000)
based on official data
MSCE-HM = 0.32 Obs
CMAQ = 0.32 Obs
70% underestimation
based on ESPREME data
MSCE-HM = 0.62 Obs
CMAQ = 0.68 Obs
30-40% underestimation

8. Wind re-suspension of HMs
HM re-suspension scheme:
Parameterization of mineral dust suspension
[Marticorena and Bergametti, 1995; Alfaro and Gomes, 2001; Gomes et al., 2003]
Parameterization of sea salt aerosol production
[Monahan et al., 1986; Gong, 2003]
Detailed soil properties data
[ISLSCP (Initiative II),
Measured HM content in soil
[FOREGS, Salminen et al., 2005]
Total emission and re-suspension of Pb in Europe ( )
Contribution of Pb re-suspension: 20% in 1990, 60% in 2005

9. Evaluation vs. observations
Annual mean concentration in precipitation based on official emissions data (2005)
Lead
Cadmium
Mod = 0.70 Obs
Corr = 0.57
Mod = 0.45 Obs
Corr = 0.51 Pb Cd
20-30% underestimation
30-50% underestimation

10. Analysis of discrepancies
Daily mean Cd concentration in air (2005)
Svratouch, Czech Republic (CZ1)

11. Analysis of discrepancies
Monthly mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2005)
Density of back trajectories
February 2005
FI93
Kotinen, Finland (FI93)
Neuglobsow, Germany (DE7)
Cd emissions in 2005
FI93

12. Analysis of discrepancies
Monthly mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2005)
FI93
March 2005
Density of back trajectories
Kotinen, Finland (FI93)
Cd emissions in 2005
FI93

13. Evaluation vs. observations
Hg concentration in air (2005)
Mod = 0.94 Obs Hg
Hg concentration in precipitation (2005)
Mod = 0.78 Obs Hg

14. HM emissions reporting
Coverage of EMEP region with emission data for Pb (2005)
Reported Pb emission data for 2005:
Gridded data: 23 countries
Gridded sector data: 15 countries
National totals: 30 countries
According to submission 2007

15. HM emissions by sectors
Cd emissions in large European countries (2005)
According to submission 2007

16. Non-Party emission estimates
Comparison of official data with non-Party estimates of Pb emissions in 2000 (TNO, ESPREME)
Germany
Germany
According to submission 2007

17. Emissions data uncertainties reported by countries (Pb)
Emission uncertainty
Emissions data uncertainties reported by countries (Pb)
Country
Emission [t/y]
Uncertainty
Austria 14
-52% +110%
Finland 24
-25% +26%
United Kingdom
118
-30% +40%
France
134
53%
Denmark 6
266%
Germany
107 ?
Russia
355
Ukraine
195 …

18. Gaps of HM officially reported emissions data
Incomplete data on emission totals
Limited data on spatial distribution
No data on temporal variation
Scarce data on emission uncertainty …
What data should be used to fill the gaps?

19. Summary (1)
Estimated intrinsic model uncertainty is 30-40% for Pb and Cd and 20-50% for Hg
Modelling results are highly sensitive to emissions data for Pb and Cd and to boundary conditions for Hg
MSCE-HM and CMAQ models agree in underestimation of measurements (up to 70%) when officially reported emissions data is used
Assessment of wind re-suspension allows improve agreement between modelling results and measurements
Current model-to-measurement comparison demonstrates % underestimation for Pb and 30-50% underestimation for Cd. Modelling results for Hg well agree with observations

20. Summary (2)
Reported emission inventories for heavy metals are incomplete and of limited value in terms of model applications
Procedure of the reported emission gaps filling is to be elaborated