1. The new impact-based severe weather warning system at the Austrian Meteorological Service ZAMG
Mag. Christian Csekits
Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG)
Tel.: /2302 oder /2311
Fax: /73
Internet:
Acknowledgments to H. Rieder, A. Ohms, T. Turecek, A. Frank, C. Ortner, P. Rainer and M. Weis

2. Impact-based severe weather warning system
Outline
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018
Motivation
Impact-based severe weather warning system
Quality check of data from fire brigade operations
‘quick and dirty’ verification of warnings
Conclusions

3. Motivation EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018

4. BUT high impact due to late snow event (orange/red):
Motivation
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018
small snow amounts in the flat areas (threshold based warning system: green or yellow)
BUT high impact due to late snow event (orange/red):
* wet, heavy snow due to warm ground (spring!)
* trees with leaves
* people not used to late snow (summer tyres on vehicles)
* many snow ploughs were removed from the trucks

5. Impact-based severe weather warning system
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018
climatological thresholds first criterion for hazard classification
initial colour of the warning level changed due to environmental conditions and probability of hazard:
* situation before precipitation event (dry/wet period, fast
melting snow)
* growing stage (number of leaves on trees - important for snow
and wind events)
* time of weather event (during morning early traffic: all roads
are blocked, holidays? weekend?)
* population density (more people affected by the weather event)
* ……..

6. Impact-based severe weather warning system
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018
Probability
Impact
A few days before the weather event, the first guess based on climatological thresholds, can be modified due to the uncertainty and the actual situation by using the Weather Impact Matrix from UK Met Office.

7. Quality check of data from fire brigade operations
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018

8. ‘Quick and dirty’ verification of warnings
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018

9. Plans for the near future
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018
Fire brigade operations data from all federal states
more ‘near real time’ impact reports from trusted spotters and public
Collection and storage of observed damage data due to severe weather
closer cooperation with insurances, state office of
agriculture, federal bureau for forestry,
hydrological offices, etc.

10. Verification of the impact * Trusted spotter reports, EWOB, WOW, media
Conclusions
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018
Verification of the impact
* Trusted spotter reports, EWOB, WOW, media
reports, insurance data, reports from fire brigade,
ambulance and police, reports from companies,
reports from individuals, etc.
RELIABILITY and QUALITY of the data???
* if your warning was perfect: damage will be less
(people were prepared) verification is bad!

11. Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions???
Folie 11
EMS Conference, Budapest, 3rd to 7th of September 2018
Thank You very much for Your attention! Any questions???