1. ASEAN – Great Powers
15 June 2010

2. Understanding Relations
National interest
Great powers interest
Sub Regional
Regional

3. How does the relations been arranged between SEA and Great Powers?
Balancing?
Badwagoning?

4. Understanding Balancing
States facing an external threat will align with others to oppose the states posing threat.
Tendencies:
- threatening state’s aggregate power
- nearer powerful state greater state offensive capabilities
More aggressive states perceive intentions

5. Understanding Bandwagoning
States facing an external threat will ally with the most threatening power.
The greater a state’s offensive capabilities

6. Historical background SEA relations with great powers
Bipolar system,
containment policy
Bilateral
Alliances : SEATO, Thailand, Philippines.
Balancing

7. Post Cold War
System : Unipolar

8. General Perception US: a benign power China:
distrust , for reasons of geographical proximity, historical enmity and interference, contemporary territorial disputes, and rising economic competition
No more China Threat but China challenge.

9. Type of Relations to Great Powers
Balancing ?
Soft balancing
Badwagoning ?
Hedging ?
engagement

10. Strategic policies to other great powers
omni-enmeshment: political and economic means, through bilateral efforts, and through the use of multilateral regional institutions: developing closer economic relations, creating political/security dialogues, exchanges, and cooperation, establishing military exchanges and relationships.

11. Strategic policies to other great powers
Hedging : neither to pick sides nor to exclude certain great powers, but rather to try to include all the various major powers in the region’s strategic affairs.
Need great powers to intertwined

12. Divergences and Convergences among SEA
D: Indonesia and Malaysia were worried about China, whereas Singapore was more concerned about Japan
C: feared the potentially destabilizing effects of a fractious U.S.-Japan alliance and deteriorating U.S.-China relations

13. Example of omni-enmeshment policies
Vietnam – US and India – while maintaining close traditional tie with China
Indonesian defense tie with US, China and Australia, II
Singapore – Thailand policymakers have tried to
turn the geopolitical reality of great power penetration to their benefit. elevated national goals of diversifying bilateral relations with major powers by promoting them as integral elements of policies to manage
regional stability

14. The Positive for Omni-enmeshment policies
mediates against the possibility of violent rivalry between major powers
these powers will discover that they have common interests that are not mutually exclusive, such as the economic benefts of free trade and secure trading routes in the region

15. Balancing Strategic
Not in realist terms : neither balance against the preponderant power of the United States, nor do they obviously balance against the potentially bigger perceived threat of China
indirect military balancing policies:
(1) undertaken by individual states unilaterally or bilaterally, aimed at deterring a range of potential threats; and (2) regional “complex balancing” policies that encompass multiple balancing media and targets, with
the wider aim of forging a regional balance of influence that goes beyond the military realm

16. Regional order Where SEA situated?
(1) superpower overlay: United States;
(2) regional great power: China; (3) major regional powers: Japan and India;
and (4) major regional players ASEAN, Australia, and South Korea

17. Examination Criteria: Open Book No lap top No sharing material
Marking:
Use the theoretical/references(write the name, year)
Your logical/chronological argument.
Creativity.