1. Long-term risk for ever being overweight or more or obese
30 years from baseline
Risk for BMI outcome (%)
Women 30-34*
Women 40-44*
Women 50-54*
Men 30-34*
Men 40-44*
Men 50-54*
Risk for developing overweight
73.7
82.0
81.7
92.2
92.0
91.6
Risk for developing obesity
38.5
45.6
48.4
47.7
48.9
49.1
Risk for developing stage 2 obesity or more
15.8
18.9
20.6
15.9
16.5
17.5
Risk for developing stage 3 obesity or more
6.1
7.6
8.0
5.9
5.3
4.4
*age at baseline (presence of overweight or obesity at baseline accounted for)
Vasan RS et al. Ann Intern Med 2005; 143:3:
US obesity epidemic set to be worse than imagined [Rheumawire > News; Oct 12, 2005]