1. Pete Benton , Beyond 2011 Programme Director
The Beyond 2011 Programme
Pete Benton , Beyond 2011 Programme Director
Office for National Statistics

2. Programme Purpose
Identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future
Provide a recommendation in September 2014
- with cost-benefit analysis
design for implementation

3. The Beyond 2011 Programme Why change? Rapidly changing society
Evolving user requirements
New opportunities – data sharing
Traditional census – costly and infrequent??

4. Beyond 2011 : Statistical options
Traditional Census (long form to everyone)
Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period)
Census
options
Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample)
Short Form + Annual Survey (US model)
Aggregate analysis
Administrative
data options
(Intermediate) Sample linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes
100% linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’
Survey
option(s)
Address register + Survey

5. Key data sources NHS Patient Register Tax and benefit ‘master index’
Electoral register (> 17 yrs)
School Census (5-16 yrs)
Higher Education Statistics Agency data (Students)
Birth and Death registrations
Commercial data?

6. Major statistical challenges
No population register
Data quality
Incomplete
Out of date
Duplicates / erroneous entries
Little reliable population attribute data
Coverage survey required
Attribute survey required

7. Beyond 2011 - Timeline (non census solution)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
population
estimates
characteristics
outputs
detailed
design
procure /
develop
develop /
test
2011
2012
2013
2014
research /
definition
initiation
2024
address
register
required on an ongoing basis – ideally the National Address Gazetteer – subject to confirmation of quality
public sector
admin
sources
& commercial ?
developing over time
coverage
surveys
testing
continuous assessment
supplemented by new targeted surveys as required
test
attribute
surveys
info from existing surveys – e.g. labour force survey, integrated household survey etc
linkage
increasing linkage over time
modelling
increasing modelling over time

8. Beyond 2011 - and into the future
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
regular production of population and attribute estimates
ongoing methodology refinement
address register required on an ongoing basis
and be added & develop over time
administrative sources will change and disappear
continuous coverage survey
need for attribute surveys declines over time ?
existing surveys
increasing linkage over time
increasing modelling over time

9. Evaluation criteria Costs Quality / benefits Legislative requirements
Accuracy
Frequency
Geographic detail
Legislative requirements
Risks

10. Statistical benefit profile
Benefit
Alternative method
Census
loss
loss
gain
gain

11. Cost profile (real terms)
Cost
Census
??? Alternative method

12. Key risks of non census alternatives
Public opinion
Data quality / technical challenge
Changes in administrative datasets
Ensuring decision making
Harmonisation of UK outputs